Karl in Gulf?

After watching how poorly computer models handled Julia, and how poorly they initially handled Hermine, I’m paying attention to a disturbance over the central Gulf south of Louisiana.  Why?   Well NHC has raised their probability for development from 10% to 20% plus there is what appears to be upper outflow forming that should enhance development.  David & I talked about this earlier tonight.  Are we nervous yet?  Nope, not until T-Storms start developing in a more concentrated manner.    The western Gulf has the warmer waters since Hermine stirred up the eastern Gulf last week and there is little shear over this feature.   Could it blow up into a Katrina?  No way, but it could become a named storm (Karl).  Whatever happens, we’ll be on the “wet side” probably increasing our rain chances for this weekend.  Time to stay tuned!