NHC began outlining an area for possible development in the 3-5+ day time frame this morning. It’s the same area that computer models for the past few days have been hinting something might form. This will be a good opportunity to see what value the long range models really have since all are indicating some development over the southern Gulf early next week. Will they be right? Or will they all be wrong? Looking at satellite loops tonight clearly show fast (40+ knots) upper west winds over the southern Gulf crossing the Yucatan and into the western Caribbean. That will not allow development in the short term (3-4 days), however, by early next week the shear is expected to weaken. Certainly it’s something to pay attention to, but it’s nothing for us, or anyone, to get nervous about.
Our weather was far different today. The upper low that was off the mouth of the river yesterday drifted farther down over the central Gulf. Our numerous (above normal) storms of yesterday decreased to widely scattered (near normal coverage) today. The next several days look to be a basic summer time forecast where showers develop along the coast overnight and near daybreak and then redevelop inland during daytime heating. With a weak wind flow at most levels, movement will be slow allowing for heavy downpours to dump 2-4” in an hour causing some brief street flooding. This afternoon was such an example. The official recording sites (MSY,NEW,NBG) all barely had enough to wet the ground while FOX 8 in mid-city received 2.32” in less than an hour. Summer storms can build to 40-50,000 feet ( 8-10 miles) in the vertical while sometimes only being 4-5 miles wide in the horizontal. That’s where the expression…” it’s raining on my block while down the street the sun is out”. No myth, that often is the case in the summer. Astronomical summer begins next Tuesday at 11:24 pm. Expect many more days like today. Stay tuned!
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