Harvey’s rainfall has now pushed it into the top 10 greatest rain events since 1950 with the high possibility it could become the greatest ever. Interesting, 5 of the top ten greatest rains have been in Texas, which should tell us these events have happened before as tropical systems lose their steering and storms stall out. It bothered me to hear the criticism of the Houston Mayor for not calling for an evacuation. Folks obviously don’t remember Rita or Ike where more people died evacuating during the storm compared to those who sheltered in place. It’s easy to be critical. What I have seen is hundreds of Texans helping out their neighbors in need. Now many from Louisiana are bringing their boats to help out. Bravo! You can’t prepare for these events that happen once every 20 years. You can minimize/mitigate the impacts, but Mother Nature can often overwhelm all plans.
So where do we go from here? NHC says the center of Harvey is moving to the SE at 5 MPH. I just don’t see that kind of movement, especially on the radar loop. Harvey appears nearly stationary 20 miles SW of Freeport hugging the coast. NHC indicates his track should emerge back over water, but as they mention, water vapor loops show a huge dry slot has rotating around the circulation and that should hinder any development. The main rain band has pushed out of Texas into Louisiana and is now just west of Morgan City. Most of Metro NOLA will see a rainy afternoon and rain totals could be 2-4”. That may cause some minor street flooding, but I do not see the Houston type flooding developing here. Hopefully the center of Harvey finally starts a northward drift by tonight, but we will be on the “wet side” meaning our rain chances stay high until Harvey lifts off to the NE later this week. So far our rain totals are less than an inch. Before Harvey is gone, we could end up in the 5-10” range, but that will be stretched out over several days. Even in Orleans Parish, the pumps should keep up. Stay tuned!
1 comment:
Thank you Bob!
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