We have been in an active (rising air) phase of the MJO for the last 4-5 weeks as August finishes with 4 named storms. Generally, the active phase of the MJO lasts 30-40 days so I suspect we have another 2-3 weeks, at least, before the Tropics start to settle down. The good news tonight is models are way less bullish at developing another western Gulf low for next week. Our first real Fall cold front should arrive late Wednesday into Thursday bringing a drier air mass. Hopefully that front will block anything that might form in the Gulf from moving our way and force the moisture farther to our south and east. Now the bad news…Irma jumped from a Tropical Storm this morning right to a Cat. 2 Hurricane this afternoon and is expected to become a Cat. 4 or 5 by this weekend. It’s way too soon to know if Irma will ever be our problem, but it appears quite likely Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic & Haiti & the Bahamas will have to deal with a major hurricane. Our time to get nervous will be NEXT Friday as we should know by then if Irma makes the recurve to the north and misses the Gulf. I have a feeling Florida up thru the Carolinas will have to deal with some serious hurricane impacts. Stay tuned!
In the short term, as Harvey continues to cruise farther to the NE, we should enjoy several mostly dry days with more showers possible Sunday into next Wednesday. Our friends to our west won’t be enjoying much for the next couple of months. If you can offer help, please do so either through your church , the American Red Cross or other organizations that help during emergencies.
2 comments:
I grew up with you on the TV for storms. I now live in the Tampa Bay area and I still come to your blog over listening to the local weather guys. What are you seeing with Irma? I know she's still a bit out, but the local weather guys have people already getting anxious...
I certainly don't wish a storm on anyone, but I honestly think that Irma hitting Louisiana and or Texas would be completely devastating!!!! Kinda like when we had Katrina and Rita back to back. Let's hope that Irma decides to stay off in the Atlantic and behave herself.
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