Turn has started...

Sorry so late but was at a fund raiser for S. Michael’s Special School.    Here’s what I see.  Satellite and radar loops show Irma moving farther away from Cuba, which to me says the long awaited turn to the north has started.  NHC nudged the track slightly to the west but not much.  The west coast of Florida will take the brunt of this storm, but there is some good news. Irma hasn’t strengthened yet although pressures are down and satellite presentations look impressive.  Where ever she makes landfall, her max winds will be 125-140 mph…a high end Cat. 3 or a low end Cat. 4.   Forward movement is down to only 6 mph but that should change as she drifts farther to the north.  I expect her to grow stronger overnight so don’t let that surprise you.  As she contacts land later Sunday and enters stronger upper level shearing the farther north she goes, Irma should weaken, but it will be a slow process.   Aside from some fast moving small tornadoes, the East Coast of FL. Will be spared major impacts.  It will be a different story for the west coast and I fear for areas from Naples thru Ft. Myers, Sarasota, Clearwater, Tampa-St. Pete up into the Big Bend region.    It has been generations since a storm this strong struck.  I’m sure many will be surprised by the water levels.  Hopefully those near the coast heeded the evacuation notices.   Those inland in Florida should be OK if they have proper window protection.  Power outages will be the main news and that could last for days.  Locally, our winds and seas are responding to the interaction of high pressure to our north and Irma entering the extreme SE Gulf.  Beside some higher tides & gusty winds, we’ll enjoy more sunny, dry weather.  Next update Sunday midday.  Stay tuned.