Tropical Atlantic Staying Quiet While East Pacific Has Action...

In a past blog I mentioned I noticed in the years the Eastern Pacific has lots of storms, over on our side of the world, we see less activity.    I can’t point out any scientific studies claiming that, just my past memory tells me so.   The remains of Hurricane Bud will bring much needed moisture into the desert Southwest hopefully ending the bad fires in New Mexico & Colorado.   A new depression has formed off of Acapulco and should cause heavy flooding rains since it is projected to be a slow mover.     NHC is keeping a 10% chance for development over the SW Gulf this weekend, but there is nothing but wind shear showing up on satellite loops that should hinder any organization.  In fact, a weak upper low is down over the central Gulf and that continues a hostile environment for tropical development.   There will be a surge of low level moisture rotating around the Atlantic Ridge, but the heaviest rainfall is expected to stay far to our west.   Had a person ask me…”should I cancel my outdoor birthday party for my son this Saturday between 2-4 PM?”   I guess if you want zero chance for rain.  However, we all know it’s summertime and that usually means it rains every day somewhere.   You can’t change your son’s birthday ( say to a drier time like October) so I say you take a chance for some dry hours with a backup plan in case those spotty storms show up.   Unless we have a big upper level high over us, daytime heating coupled with sea/lake breeze fronts will trigger our daily rainfall.    What we can’t tell you in advance is which neighborhood will get soaked and  which ones will stay dry.  And it’s only mid-June!  We have 3 more months of this before Fall fronts bring us some relief.   Stay tuned!