It’s unusual to go a day without any showers around in July, but we just “enjoyed” a 3 day weekend without any rain anywhere. Of course we all know that without clouds & showers we get way too hot (96 today). Finally relief is coming as a dying cluster of storms moving towards us tonight will bring over cloud cover to temper the early morning heat. In addition, the large upper high that has capped our atmosphere, has retreated back farther to our west allowing us to get back into that “ring of Fire” pattern we had last week. An unusually strong (for July) upper low is centered NE of Atlanta, but computer models are not bringing it westward towards us as previous runs did. This will keep us in a many northerly flow with our only chances for rain coming with disturbances rotating around the upper high. This certainly is not our typical summer pattern. In fact, there are no signs of the Bermuda High/Atlantic Ridge anywhere across the Gulf as westerly surface winds dominate. You have to go down into the Caribbean to find any easterly flow, which usually is across much of the Gulf at this time of the year. During the week, our current strong westerly surface flow will relax to a light & variable wind pattern for later this week. That will be perfect for the kick off of the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo on Thursday. Remember, you don’t have to fish to win the grand prize (21’ boat & trailer). Just register ($25) at www.tarponrodeo.org.
The Tropics are dead for the rest of this month in our part of the world. NHC clearly was correct for not being concerned about the east coast low pressure that stayed over land and didn’t develop. However, it did briefly bring winds gusting to 50+ along the beaches south of NYC. Models are indicating the eastern Pacific will become very active with several named storms during the next 7-10 days. Active East Pac usually means quiet Gulf & Caribbean. With the MJO still in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase, I’m likely that scenario for the rest of July. Stay tuned!
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