Dorian Forms Way Out in Atlantic...

The season's 4th named storm (Dorian) was named this afternoon.   He is predicted to become a Hurricane by early next week on a possible track thru the northern Leeward Islands towards Puerto Rico & Hispaniola.  It is way too soon to speculate whether Dorian turns to the north & misses the U.S. or stays on a more southern track into the Gulf.  Based on what's happened so far this summer, the odds greatly favor the turn to the north track RIGHT NOW.  But let's focus closer to home before we think about other systems. 

NHC finally is talking about the cluster of storms over the NW Gulf giving it a very small (10%) chance for development.  What I'm seeing on the visible(daylight) satellite loop are several swirls(vortices/rotations) with no pattern of becoming better organized.  One swirl is inland NW of Lake Charles moving into eastern Texas, another on radar is just south of Lake Charles with the much bigger swirl offshore farther to the south.  That's where the heavier storms are 100-150 miles off our coast.  My concern is IF the larger swirl becomes the real center, we are on the "wet side" of whatever forms so we'll need to pay attention Sunday and Monday for potential flooding rainfall.   During late August & early September, tropical systems move very slowly (Harvey 2017) resulting in really high rain totals.  Until we start to get into late September & October,  the slow movement of storms is to be expected.   Whether it gets a name or not, the main impacts will be heavy rainfall.

Invest 98L has the same situation as there are several small rotations on the visible loop.  One is SW of Lake Okeechobee over land with a bigger swirl over the northern Bahamas.   NHC expects this system to slowly become better organized with a 90% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Erin by Sunday.   The projected track keeps her well east of the Carolina coast.

So our concerns should be # 1, the system over the NW Gulf and # 2, Dorian staying on a southern track for next week.  We'll have plenty of time to watch for that so focus on the Gulf this weekend. Stay tuned!