Wednesday, August 14, 2019

End of August Could Turn Active...

Tropical activity in our part of the World will stay quiet for the rest of this week.   However, there are signs that will change as we head toward September.  The MJO is shifting into the more favorable phase (rising air) over the Gulf & Caribbean and models are hinting a well defined tropical wave will move into the Gulf in the 7-10 day time frame.  That's for NEXT weekend so we'll have plenty of time to watch for it.  It may just remain a wave bringing us above normal clouds & showers, or it could try to become better organized.  Since there is nothing there yet, let's see if future models pick up on this feature.

For the short term, NWS cautioned that today's storms will have very little motion creating the potential for some flooding in spots.   The atmosphere is really juiced (moist) and downpours of 1-2" will be common with isolated 3-5" amounts possible.  Just use your common sense when driving around.  If you get caught under a storm, try to get home as quickly as you can.  The good news is more numerous clouds and showers should temper our heat a little bit.  It's still awful August.

Finally, the Mississippi River at the Carrollton gauge is rapidly falling and will be below 10 feet by this weekend and below 8 feel by early September.  That is great news IF a major storm threatens to bring a surge up the River.  We now have a larger cushion to take a big storm surge without overtopping the River Levees.  Hopefully, the Spillway closure is allowing Lake P. and surrounding waters to recover and become productive fisheries again? Stay tuned! 

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