True Test of Computer Models...

For days now the computer models (Spaghetti) have been indicating whatever is left of Cristobal will head back into the Gulf and make landfall along the central Louisiana coast late Sunday into Monday.  What I learned from my decades dealing with computer models is the models have difficulty dealing with weaker, less defined storms and that certainly is what we have now with Tropical Depression Cristobal.

Clearly satellite pictures have the center inland no longer over the Gulf waters.  On the visible loop, it appears to me that several small swirls have developed although NHC did not mention that in their discussion.  The brighter cloud tops (reds & yellows) are away from the center which gets me to wonder if a new center is trying to form?  What if the center never does come back into the Gulf?  For now, there are no major changes to their thinking and that will not change until the system starts to move.   However, They did say "the Euro model does show a little more shift to the left (west) in 3-4 days...This should NOT be considered as a significant change."

The new centerline is now west of Lafayette and that might mean a trend?  Regardless, we will remain on the "wet side" and that will place us in the heavy rain potential.  Any impacts for us will not happen until sometime on Sunday.  One thing appears certain right now, the Gulf is a hostile environment for development as dry air covers the western & northern half along with moderate SW upper wind shear.  Hopefully this means all Cristobal will be is a weak rain storm for us.

 Locally, very few showers developed today.  Where it didn't rain, temps were well up into the 90s and that should be the case again tomorrow and on Saturday.  By Sunday, Cristobal's clouds and showers should bring us some relief from the heat.  I probably won't post again until Friday PM since not much is expected to change.  Stay tuned!