Let's begin with the good news, which is hard to find. RIGHT NOW, we are NOT expecting either Laura or Marco to become a major hurricane, however, that remains a real possibility for Laura as the current wind shear over the Gulf that will limit Marco will not be around when Laura arrives.
You can see how both systems look better organized on satellite views. We begin with Marco that is now entering the extreme SE Gulf. There still is a strong SW wind shear ahead of Marco and that might be what his motion has stayed almost due north. I should caution, that even though NHC has made a dramatic shift in his track, he still could go farther to our east putting us on the weaker side.
That is not what the center line track shows now as it's a direct hit up Barataria Bay curving just west of MSY. That is an awful track for us that brings the greatest impacts (storm surge, heavy rainfall, strongest winds) right over us, including coastal Mississippi west of BIX. It will be important to follow the trend of the center line during the next 2 days. Sunday's weather should still be fine before it goes downhill after dark. RIGHT NOW, everyone inside our levee protection system should be OK. Outside the levees, you'll need to evacuate tomorrow. Then to kick sand in our faces, Laura arrives with an even greater potential threat.
NHC has shifted Laura's track back to the east towards us placing us on the strongest side of that storm. I wish I could tell you something different, but all models are showing us getting a double wallop with the later punch the hardest.
Laura is still a long way from us and lots could still change. She still has to survive going over Hispaniola with 10,000+ foot mountains and we can only hope her circulation is disrupted enough to weaken her more than the models indicate. The modern day graphics clearly show me the threat from these two storms.
Marco will come first followed by Laura. I will decide tomorrow if I need to close my storm shutters, but I can tell you I will certainly start to prepare my yard moving my potted plants inside my "he shed" and placing all my patio furniture inside my side yard fence. I think we can expect power outages along with some flooding due to the intense rainfall that comes with tropical systems. I am nearly ready and suggest you do the same. Next update after 10 PM.
4 comments:
Bob, won't Marco pull up cooler water from below which will limit Laura's strengthening? I suppose that is already factored in since the forecast keeps Laura at a Cat 1.
Bob, What Storm Surge outside of Levee Protection should we expect with both storms? Live in Laplace near the Lake. Lost everything in Issac- home, cars, etc.
Concerned that power outages and flooding streets with Marco may hinder those who may feel trapped at home and would want to leave for Laura, if Laura has a stronger storm surge.
Will there be a map indicating storm surge expected at street level for both storms prior to their arrival? It would be nice to know if I should prepare to leave ahead of Marco if Laura will be a stronger storm.
thank you Bob for your spot on forecast. Locals can't do the quality you present to us!
What about Bob? Genius as Always! .. Buck
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