Marco Won't Miss, Laura Near Miss Right Now...

Computer models at 5 days out still have a large cone of error(150-200 miles).  Once the storm is 1-2 days from land fall, that error cone shrinks down to 30-50 miles.  Marco is churning towards Louisiana and we will see some impacts all over SE LA/MS with the greater issues coming down along the coast and to the west of the Mississippi River.  Impacts will be less the farther one goes to the north and east.  Satellite views show two vastly different disturbances with Laura being 2+ times the size of Marco.

Marco is over the warmest waters of the Gulf right now and will be moving into increasing upper level wind shear.  His window for strengthening into a Hurricane is limited to the next 12-18 hours.  Laura still has to cross Cuba before reaching the Gulf late Monday, so let's focus on Marco first.

Marco is a small, tight system wind wise, however, what catches my eye is the "feeder band" rotating around the east side of him.   The greatest winds will be confined down along the coast IF Marco stays on the projected path with Metro New Orleans (Kenner, Metairie, NOLA) getting 30-50 mph gusts. Expect those types of wind speeds to cause some power outages.  That feeder band should rotate around his east side bringing the threat of heavy (4-8") rain to NOLA including the North Shore and Miss. Coast.  To me, the heavy rainfall will be the biggest issue for Orleans Parish with their pumping troubles.  Surge wise, here's a graphic from the NWS.

NHC also puts out an arrival time for tropical storm (39 + mph) force winds.  As I mentioned yesterday, Marco is no Katrina.  Our levees should have no trouble keeping his surge outside the protection system. Now on to Laura.

I'm kind of amazed the mountains of Hispaniola didn't not disrupt Laura's circulation as it remains intact heading towards Cuba.  What has changed over night is the westward trending of the center line track.

This shift(from east of Lafayette to the TX/LA line) takes the main impacts away from SE LA/MS and focuses them on western LA and the upper Texas Coast.  We are even outside the cone of error, but there is still plenty of time for a shift back to the east so we should not let down our guard.   Since Laura is expected to become a Cat. 2 or 3 Hurricane, my thinking is her track could go even farther to the west as it becomes difficult for a large storm to change directions.   Some folks wonder if Marco could up-well some cooler waters over the eastern Gulf?   Maybe, but look at how small an area Marco covers in relation to the projected track of Laura.

It won't be enough as Laura will have most of the undisturbed Gulf to gather fuel for intensification.  So what am I going to do today.   I will take down my hanging plants and move them next to my house.  I will not move any of my potted plants into my "he-shed", nor will I close my hurricane shutters.   If there is a change in Marco's path later this afternoon bringing stronger winds closer to the city, I can get those plants into my shed within 30 minutes.    I'll have another update after 5 this afternoon.  RIGHT NOW, I am far less nervous about either storm compared to yesterday.  This is not our first rodeo, we know what to expect.  Stay tuned!