Tuesday, August 25, 2020
No Change in Track...
As I mentioned in my last post, I did not expect NHC to change the center line track and they have not. It is exactly the same as their 4 PM track. There has been no shift to the east as it has moved .5 degrees to the west and .2 of a degree to the north (WNW 300 degree)
The tight view has the center line track between Beaumont & Lake Charles. Could it shift one way or the other? Perhaps, but the change at this late in the game won't change where the greatest impacts occur and that will NOT be here.
Our local problems will be high water OUTSIDE the levee protection system. Wave heights are already higher than with Marco and will likely reach 15-20 feet offshore tomorrow. The east winds tonight are driving/piling water into Lake Pontchartrain and a 3-5' surge is expected to drive water over the seawall on the North Shore. During the day, wind direction will slowly become more southerly taking the water away from the South Shore and over the wall along the Mandeville lakefront. Those south winds will also drive water up Barataria Bay and all waterways to the west. Hurricane Laura is almost a Cat. 2 now as winds have increased to 90 mph.
With Marco long gone, Laura has the Gulf of Mexico all to herself. There is no wind shear around the storm and the waters all the way to landfall are very warm. Don't be surprised to see Laura become stronger than a Cat. 3. She will most certainly cause much wind & surge damage from Morgan City westward. Locally, we'll have several squalls throughout the day tomorrow with gusty (20-30+) winds. With her current forward motion speed still 17 mph, there is a 99.5% probability that Laura cannot come here. The farther she gets beyond 90 degrees west longitude, we can begin to relax. Feel/pray for those in east Texas & SW Louisiana. We know what they will be going through. IF the current center line track proves true, Houston & Galveston will be on the weaker side of a big Hurricane. Next update after daybreak. Thanks for all of your comments. I try to read them all. I only ask for everyone to show respect. Stay tuned!
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12 comments:
Thanks Bob! The time you take to give us your input is appreciated! You’re the man!
Do you think Thibodaux will see any Storm Surge? Aren't we inside the levee system and where would it come from?
THE 1OPM TRACK DID SHIFT EAST, THAT IS THE OLD 4PM TRACK YOU POSTED.
Is it bad that I’m skipping the local news reports and just reading your updates?!?! Thank you so much for continuing to take care of us!
Bob u r the best.
.all these new meteorologists, all they do is repeat what the NHC says...i can di that myself....u give your opinion....50 years of tide tested n true...50 years of watching hurricanes in our state.....u r the best brother
Thank you Bob! I’m with you all the way!
I'm Groves, tx. My news here said the she shifted 20 miles to the east. Which is good for port Arthur area. We shouldn't see much of a storm surge. It's the wind according to my news. I pray for everyone to be safe.
Just can't thank you enough for all your hard work keeping us informed! Thank you!!
Bob Breck, I love your expertise, advice and knowledge during hurricane season��. Thank you for all that you do.❤
Thanks Bob I was worried
It did shift east Bob. You didn't use the most up to date track.
Hey mr hurricane aka bb!!! does she have to slow down for her to make that sharp turn. And uf that high is getting weaker or moving away from us before land fall. Cause right now she is sitting in hot water and don't wanna leave like Katrina...
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