Our Threat Will Come From Laura...

Looking at satellite loops this afternoon, it's obvious both tropical system are struggling. Not sure why they haven't developed faster except what I mentioned in a previous post about the MJO.   It's next week when the MJO flips to the favorable (rising air) phase and that is when both disturbances will be in the northern Gulf.

You can see Tropical Storm Laura remains rather ragged and will likely stay that way as she interacts with nearby land areas over the next 2-3 days.  The newest NHC center line track keeps trending farther to the west increasing the threat for impact to SE LA/MS.

In fact, we are now the "bullseye" as the center line track is aimed right at the mouth of the River.  Will that happen?  Probably not as newer model runs keep taking it farther to the west.

The top graphic is the center line track forecast from this morning while the one below it is the new one shifting it from Pensacola to the mouth of the River.  The middle graphic is the Euro that has a strong (perhaps Cat. 2?) Hurricane just south of Grand Isle while the next is the GFS (American ) model that has it farther offshore and weaker.  The last graphic is  one of NHC's models that agrees with the Euro on a strong Hurricane south of the Louisiana coast.   The reasoning for the storm getting stronger is it will move over the "Loop current" in the Gulf that has the highest heat content.  Regardless of the final track, it's becoming very apparent to me that Laura is our storm to watch.

TD 14 has NOT gotten stronger this afternoon despite having a well defined circulation.  The colorized view shows how the T-Storms remain away from the center.  The latest NHC track has also shifted farther to the west (away from us) taking the main impacts towards Texas.

You can see this morning's center line track had it making landfall east of Houston.  This afternoon's track now is well west of Houston.  That should be far enough away from us to cause any impacts here.  It's Laura that we need to worry about.

We still have the upper trough over us with a surface boundary near us.  We're 90+ again, but the dew points are in the 60s so it doesn't feel so bad.  We'll see the tropical feel return over the weekend into next week.   Right now we don't need to do anything except what Brenda & I did today.  Stock up on supplies and get ready for a storm threat here next Tuesday and Wednesday.  I'll have another update later tonight after the 10 pm NHC update.