Monday, August 24, 2020
Shear Is King, Mangles Marco,,,
Dovetailing on my last post from 10 pm last night..."never ignore the obvious". NHC is keeping to their westward track despite the obvious information that says different.
Taking the graphics one at a time. The top shows both storms, the next is Marco with all of the T-Storms blown well NE of the surface center. I put my thinking on his track that keeps us on the weak side of the storm that is now not much of a storm. Current max. winds now only 50 mph and the daylight satellite views are showing a totally exposed center. Radar indicates most of the heavy rainfall is EAST of Mobile Bay. Finally, look at the surface winds...out of the NNE and not ESE. Sure tells me Marco is not making the west turn.
Still, NHC doesn't change their track. I knew we were safe when I saw Jim Cantore in downtown NOLA near the Riverwalk! TWC (The Weather Channel basically follows what NHC puts out even when the data doesn't follow. Whatever, Marco is just our tuneup for the real deal.
Tropical Storm Laura is still on track to become a much stronger storm than Marco. Her center is moving south of Cuba over open water, although it appears there are several centers of circulation. Once we get more daylight pictures, that center should become more obvious.
NHC's center line track has shifted slightly to the east bringing impacts closer to us. Intensity forecasts still predict at least Laura will become a Cat. 2 Hurricane, but that may be too low? I'll be watching to see what that center line does during the next 2 days. We want to avoid the eye wall and the current trending is making me nervous! Next update before noon. Stay tuned!
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34 comments:
Thanks Bob, you rock♥️
Thank you Bob Breck
Thank you Bob Breck
Thanks Bob!
Appreciate ya Bob‼️
Thank you Bob!
Looked for your new post first thing this morning. Thank you for keeping it real with us all.
-love & appreciation from MSGulf Coast
Bob you are the G.O.A.T.
Bob,
You are the best weatherman in the history of weather!
Mom
I understand that Laura is strengthening. But hasnt the water cooled down in the gulf? It wouldnt even fully support Marcos. Do we really rxpect Laura to be a category 2 or higher?
Thank you Bob, I only trust you!
Thanks so much Bob! I still ONLY follow your updates!
I don't know if you read these, but I want you to know that I send your blog to my family, or concern friends, and tell them that they need to follow your blog before they bother me about what they see on the national news.
The national news is always henny-penny, foxy loxy, where is you are clear and calm, and give us the no hype no-nonsense story.
Thank you for your continued service, even after retirement.
Thank you !!!!!!
Laura'a track is further west this morning than it was last night.
You're saying that the center line of the official forecast, from last night to this morning, has shifted slightly to the east but hasn't it actually shifted in the other direction?
Thanks Bob. Waiting this out in Meridian Ms waiting on your reports.
So thankful you’re still sharing your extraordinary gift from God to the public! My dad was transferred down here from the north when I was a kid, and one of the first things I learned was to hush when Bob work was talking! I didn’t know you were still publicly interpreting the weather until this past weekend, so I sent this link to all my friends and family. Just in time! God bless!
Used to be Only 2 guys in New Orleans
Nash Roberts and Bob Breck. The Lord called on Nash. Lucky for us Bob is still here to keep us informed about
Mother Nature's antics. Before Computers and all this new so-called high tech gimmicks, A simple white board and a crayon was used to illustrate what was happening.
And we could bet on it being accurate.
Thank you Bob Breck for All the years of enlightenment.
There’s the Bob I know ... once again literally waiting til landfall to give his official forecast and then bash the NHC, TWC, Jim etc. Notice how Bob issues his post right before or usually just after he reads them knowing changes are going to be made (it’s in their discussions he reads) then acts as if he made the call himself. Good stuff..
Thanks Bob Breck for continuing to keep your bowers informed. I trust your input completely
I smell a Fujiwhara..
Thank you Bob for keeping us updated! I grew up with everyone saying "what did Bob say, he's always spot on." You're still my go to meteorologist!
That last "Anonymous Said" must work for the Weather Channel....
Thank you Bob, as always.
Thanks Bob for the update and a good laugh!
Bob saved me from katrina! Always trust in bob
Appreciate your blog! Thank you for keeping it real.
The Weather Channel is worth something if you love in, e.g. Chicago. For us it isn't worth a whole lot, and certainly not when there are oodles of good web sites that one can use and get the straight data.
Sure did. Not really following what hes saying..
Thanks for keeping us updated!
Bob didn’t save anyone from Katrina.... his forecast was a complete mess. Bob had Katrina going to Tampa!!!! Then flip flopped like crazy later when he was completely wrong. It’s ALL on record. Blogs tore him up for weeks on his failed forecast as he hid out in Dallas Tx. Just like his Marco forecast that he said was going to be a problem for Texas not us.
Thanks Bob!!!! Wish you and Carl Arredondo were back on the air even though different stations. You two were the best at “ACCURATELY” forecasting storms!!!!!
Well it is good to see that maybe you have graduated to being a real weatherman. In the 80’s you publicly ridiculed me for asking a question about why the lightning seemed more intense and frequent than when I was a young child. Your answer was so funny, “maybe you are closer to the sky now.” Very funny. Well I have since done my own searching and found out that we have different sun cycles and it is our sun that affects the weather on our planet. We are in a 25 year sun cycle right now and we are having lightning strikes that are lasting longer, that are repetitive in the same spot. They not only branch out like trees but go quite a way horizontally. Just look at the effects of lightning in California right now. In order to predict the weather accurately, you need to see what is going on in space. Oh, and Incase you don’t know, our geomagneticsphere is very weak and not shielding us from incoming CME’s.
Finally hearing some common sense again. When NOAA became political last year they lost some good people and the people today only seem to pay attention to what the computers say. I so miss Bob Breck.
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