And Then Along Came Sally...

As I await the 4 PM update, here's what I'm seeing on satellite and radar.  NHC upgraded TD 19 to Tropical Storm Sally and they expect her to become a Cat. 1 Hurricane before landfall on Tuesday.

Radar shows the ill-defined center now over the Gulf south of Cape Coral.  The brighter (colder) cloud tops remain on the south and east sides that might indicate some upper wind shear across the northern side.  I'm wondering what effect, if any, the system over the northern Gulf is having on Sally?  Unless there is some force (unfavorable MJO?) we can't see, all models and forecasters at NHC expect future intensification.  OK, it's in so here's the new forecast track.

For sure, they still expect it to become a Cat. 1 Hurricane on Monday, but they have made a definite "nudge" to the right (east) curving the track BEFORE it gets to us.  Let's check the center line compared to the 10 AM track.  the 10 AM is on top.

IF this shift becomes reality, it is great news for SE LA. as it keeps us on the weaker side of the storm.  It is bad news for those along the Mississippi & Alabama coasts, especially east of Bay St. Louis to east of Mobile Bay.  That's where the worst impacts will be IF this new center line proves accurate.  I would like to see this trend continue before letting my guard down here.  NHC has a Hurricane Watch in effect from Grand Isle to the AL/FL state line.  They point out that the average track error at 96 hours is 150 miles and we remain in the cone of error.  However, the latest coordinates show a .1 degree movement to the west and .3 degrees to the north.(NNW).  On their advisory they still have forward motion to the West at 7 mph.  Remember, computer models do very well with large, strong systems (Hurricane Laura), and often struggle with predicting weaker, less defined storms.  We have a long way to go before I'm relaxing my concerns.  Let's pay attention to the speed and direction of future advisories.

 

Our rains appear to be ending as that small swirl down in the Gulf drifts farther to the WSW.  Obviously our focus will be on Sally for the next few days. 

Several folks jumped on the HWRF model that had Sally's intensity up to a Cat. 4.  It's always dangerous when people, with little weather background, think one model really means something. Let the experts at NHC and  Your Weather Authority at FOX 8 be the ones to guide you during this "potential threat."   Next update around 10 PM  Stay tuned!