Sally Still Coming...

As I await the 4 PM update, this is what I'm seeing on satellite views. RIGHT NOW, comparing Sally with Hurricane Pauline shows there is no comparison.  Hurricane Pauline has a well defined eye with a symmetrical eye wall around most of it.

Now look at tropical Storm Sally.  Really, without having a Recon Plane fixing a center, I don't know how NHC can give us coordinates.  It's hard to find a center based on satellite views.

I'm guessing with my arrow placement.  It is apparent Sally remains a lop-sided storm and that is confirmed by radar views .I'll be curious to see if NHC adjusts the track back slightly to the east since I noticed a jump in wave height over the northern Gulf but not off our coast.

In addition, many of the newer model runs have a turn to the north east of us.  The latest intensity runs keep Sally a Cat. 1 except the HWRF model that has stayed higher than the others.  Well it's in so let's see their new track.

yea, I know it looks about the same, but there are subtle changes.  NHC did mention how model runs have shifted to the east and they follow by moving the center line track 10-15 miles to the east. 

The top graphic is from 10 AM while the bottom is the latest.  As you can see, it isn't a whole lot, but if that trend could continue, it would be good for NOLA as we would get back on the weaker side of the storm.  It'll be something to follow as Sally gets closer.  The other change is the slowing of forward motion and that means higher rain totals.  Here's the latest estimate.

The purple area is 15-20"+ and that would cause major flooding problems for BOTH sides of the Lake. We clearly are not out of the woods concerning major impacts from Sally.  We need to see that center line track keep shifting back to our east taking the highest wind, surge & rainfall with it.  Obviously I realize that means the brunt of the storm goes to MS/AL, but remember there is elevation there while we are below sea level.  Best scenario would be for Sally not to strengthen as much as predicted (Perhaps MJO influence?) and the track turns to the north sooner.  There remains lots of UNCERTAINTY and that likely won't change before landfall.  I will prepare my yard getting plants next to my house along with all lawn furniture.  Tomorrow I'll have to decide whether to climb the ladder to secure my hurricane shutters.   Based on what I'm seeing now, Sally will not become a major Hurricane like Katrina or even Laura.  My next update will be around 10 PM.  For now, Go Saints!  Stay tuned!