It's Time To Get Nervous...

I'm not going to sugar coat what has happened over night.  Many of you already know models made a significant westward shift in the track that, IF it becomes reality, will bring some serious impacts to SE LA/MS.  So let's begin with the track first.  Remember, NHC track forecasting has proved very good with larger storms and Tropical Storm Sally is getting larger.

The westward shifting trend began yesterday and continues this morning.  Here's how that center line shift looks and why it's significant.

The top graphic was yesterday afternoon when the center line made landfall at Bay St. Louis keeping us on the weaker side of Sally.  The middle was last night when the track shifted over Waveland.  The bottom two are from this morning with the track now WEST of the mouth of the River moving across N.O. East and then Lacombe.  IF it proves true, it means the New Orleans, Jefferson Parish & St. Tammany will get in the eye wall and the storm surge would push up Barataria Bay and into Lake Pontchartrain.  Latest surge estimates are 4-6' in Lake P. and 7-11' east of the River and 4-7' west of the River.   Could this change?  Sure, there is still time for that center line track to shift back to the east, but once locked in NHC rarely makes big changes.   Now on to the intensity forecast.

Yesterday the HWRF model had Sally becoming a CAT. 4 and still has it a CAT. 3.  Yesterday evening's runs were less bullish, but the overnight runs ramped up again.  That is why Sally is expected to become a 100 + mph Hurricane.   That means, unless the track shifts back to our east, I will get up on my ladder to close and secure my hurricane shutters tomorrow morning.   Many boat owners watching FOX 8 this morning have already moved their boats & campers inside the levee protection system.  FOX 8 will have extended storm coverage this morning leading up to the Saints game at 4:30 PM.

Even though winds are from the NE, water will begin piling into Lake P. as Sally Approaches.  Seas are already 6-9 feet.

The first daylight pictures clearly show a larger storm with most of the rain and T-Storms on the south and east sides.  We should see the inner core wrap around once Sally moves farther away from Florida.  Notice the current motion has increased to 13 mph and that is good as we don't want her to stall over us. her current motion would take the center line into Mississippi to our east, but NHC believes there will be a turn to the left (west) during the day bringing Sally's core to SE LA/MS.   Let's watch closely those coordinates.  Over night they moved 1 degree west and 1.7 degrees to the north.  We need more of that northerly move to continue.

Look how the rain bands/squalls have increased with Sally.   Wherever that center line track goes, areas to the right (east) could get 10-20+ inches of rain.  I'll have more on the rain impacts on my next post around 11 AM. Zack Fradella has some excellent graphics on FOX 8 and they will have extended coverage leading up to the Saints game.  Our impact days here will be after midnight Monday night into early Wednesday. Stay tuned!