Sally Steady As She Goes...Right!

I've seen several blog comments saying all these forecasters with their high tech computer models seem to be all over the place flip-flopping model run to run.  And with Sally, that has been correct.  However, this has been a much harder storm to follow as she has, at times, multiple centers of rotation at various levels in the atmosphere.  In addition, computer models don't handle weaker systems very well as opposed to the well defined major hurricane Laura.  Now that Sally has become a Cat. 1 Hurricane with a better defined inner core, hopefully models will do better on track and intensity.

Even though satellite views show a more symmetrical storm, radar views paint a different picture.  Note the western and southern sides have far less rain that the northern & eastern sides.   NHC says the forward motion is WNW at 7, to me it's not moving that fast.  In fact, my last post said it looked like it had stalled & that might be?  I have seen NOTHING that would indicate NHC will shift the track back to the west closer to us.  Instead, they might keep shifting/nudging it farther to the east.  RIGHT NOW, the worst impacts (surge/winds/rain) will be from the MS/AL line east to the Florida beaches.

Seas keep increasing east of the mouth of the River, but the wind direction here remains NNE.  I'd love to see that direction veer back more to the NNW as that would confirm Sally will stay well to our east.  IF the current track proves to be correct, SE LA will see very little rainfall (1-2" at most), some wind (15-25 with gusts to 40) with the mains issues being storm surge with high tides.  From what I've seen, all flood gates have been closed so high water inside the levee protection system should not be an issue.

Finally, while all attention has been on Sally, here's a satellite view of the Atlantic that captures 5 named storms at once.  From right to left we have Sally. Paulette, Rene, Teddy & Vicky.  there's only one more name left.  Next update around 5 PM.  Stay tuned!