Monday, September 14, 2020

Sally Strengthens & Stalls?

Sorry I'm late but I had to get my sister-in-law to the airport for an early flight, went back to sleep & slept through my phone alarm.  You already know the eastward shifting track trend continues so I won't go into great detail.


It is now east of Bay St. Louis near Gulfport and consequently the heaviest rain forecast has shifted east (away) from NOLA.  That brings the brunt of the storm to the MS/AL/FL coasts.

So I have no concerns this morning?   WRONG!   Here's what I'm seeing on satellite and radar.  




Sally has become a much more organized storm with a circular pattern that appears to show the beginning of an eye.  So what's the problem?  The satellite and radar centers don't line up with the surface pressure center that the Recon planes are finding.  The bigger green dot is where NHC places the center, but that is not with the sat/radar centers.  To me it appears Sally has almost stalled or is certainly NOT moving to the WNW at 8 mph as NHC has it.   I'm pretty certain the next advisory at 10 AM will relocate the center farther to the north & east.  The radar loop shows a more NNW movement but under 5 mph.  



 Sally has been a really strange storm and until she's on shore we need to keep paying attention.  One thing in our favor is our local winds.

As long as they stay NNE it means the center is going to our east.  IF they start to become more Easterly, that would mean Sally is going to our west.  I am not going up my ladder to secure my hurricane shutters unless the track shifts back to the west.  I'm afraid with so slow a movement we will be dealing with soon to be Hurricane Sally for 2 days.  Next update after the 10 AM advisory.  Stay tuned!


7 comments:

Anonymous said...

You say that if the winds stay the same Sally will go to our East but if they become more easterly Sally will go to our west. What do you mean by "our west?" Could this go west of New Orleans or do you mean west of the forecast centerline that we have now?

Eml said...

Thank you Bob

Anonymous said...

Can someone help me understand what surface pressure is? Perhaps an example if necessary?

Lee Porter said...

Atmospheric pressure on the ground like a barometer reading. Low pressure=bad weather, high pressure more clear/good weather.

Reece said...

Thanks a million for the updates Bob!

Circa1976 said...

Hey Guys! Some of you will understand when I say this —- The Birds are out. NOLA will be fine.

John said...

Thanks again