Sally Struggling With Shear...

While I await the 10 pm NHC update, let me review what I'm seeing on satellite & radar views.  Tropical Storm Sally is a very asymmetric (lop-sided) system with the western & northern sides having no storms while the real weather remains on here south and east sides.

Unless Recon is finding lower pressure and higher winds, I don't think there will be much change in strength on the new update.  Also, is it me or does it appear the center is hugging the west Florida coast a little more than the earlier track indicated?

Radar views have the ill defined center SW of Fort Myers and I'll be curious if NHC nudges the center line a little farther to our east.   OK, here's the 10 PM forecast track.

Well, they keep it a 40 mph Tropical Storm with movement to the WNW (285 degrees) at 8 mph.  Even through they say the track remains the same, I see a slight "nudge" back to the west of Bay St. Louis which would not be a good trend if that continues tomorrow and Monday.  IF the NHC center line track verifies, it would bring some impacts into SE LA by late Monday into Tuesday.  The worst impacts still look to be east of the Pearl River over to the Al/FL line.   We remain under a Hurricane Watch.  A new Recon plane will arrive on site later tonight.  NHC still believes Sally will become a Hurricane, however, they said in their discussion intensity models have become "less bullish".  We will need to make some decisions tomorrow if the center line track doesn't start shifting back to the east.  Next NHC update is 4 AM.  Next update from me will be before 8 AM.  Stay tuned!