There have been no major changes over night in the guidance coming from NHC (National Hurricane Center). Land based radar views pinpoint the center of circulation is now moving off the extreme southern tip of Florida and will enter the Gulf shortly. It has NOT strengthened and remains a Tropical Depression. However, I do expect it to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Sally on the 10 AM update. Let's begin with radar and satellite views.
What leaps out to me is how lopsided she is RIGHT NOW. Most of the heavy rains and wind is on the south and east sides. IF that trend continues as soon to be Sally moves over the Gulf, the center line track will be key. NHC made some subtle changes to that track moving the 1st 3 days a little to the south while re-curving days 4-5 more to the east. IF we can keep that center line moving farther to our east, then SE Louisiana would see the least of the winds and rainfall. Any shift to the west and south brings the greater impacts over SE LA. Movement overnight has been WSW as Zack Fradella pointed out on radar on FOX 8 this morning. That movement is NOT following the NHC forecast track.
So IF that change in forward direction is real, I suspect NHC will shift the new track at 10 AM slightly to the west. Why is that important? Look at the rainfall predictions from NWS.
The top graphic is the 3 day rain totals that predict 10-15"+ to the right (east) of the center line track. The bottom 2 graphics are the 7 day rain totals that have a small bullseye of 15-20"+ just south of Mobile Bay. Obviously, any shift in that track will mean far different impacts. RIGHT NOW, the worst impacts (winds/rain/storm surge) appear to be aimed towards the MS/AL/FL. beaches, but that could easily change during the next 24-36 hours. If you are a boat owner and are wondering should I get it out of the water, here's my suggestions. IF you live east of the Pearl River (Waveland to Biloxi) you need to move your property away from the water as there could be a surge greater than 5 feet. If you are west of the Pearl River (Slidell, Shell beach, Hopedale) you can wait until tomorrow to make that decision since Sunday will be mostly dry and we'll have many more model runs to see if there is a track shift.
Not to forget our local weather, there is a large rain shield just south of NOLA as a weak little rotation (arrow) is down over the Central Gulf. NHC indicates that disturbed area should move AWAY from us during the day so we should mainly be dry this morning with some daytime heating storms this afternoon. Our focus needs to be with soon to be Sally.
8 comments:
Thank you Chief Meteorologist Bob Breck.
Thanks Bob for all your years of service.🌀
5 generations! 💯
Time Flies!
My son Jonathan wanted to be a meteorologist because of you.
He sent me your weather blog page.
Thanks Bob. We sure do miss seeing your face. But glad to still hear your input. Your the best.
Love you Bob! God bless!
I always come here after checking the nhc's data to put things into more context/perspective. Thanks Bob.
NO shift to the west as Bob said... wrong yet again
When a system passes through the Central and North Central Gulf, with a lot of clouds and rain and wave action, doesn't that have some effect on lowering the surface temps of the water? And if that does happen, doesn't that slow down the evaporation process, hindering the intensification of any system following it? I think had Laura passed in the wake of the system which dissipated at the mouth of the River just days before, the surface temps would have been much cooler and Laura would not have intensified as quickly. Just saying. Benny from Schriever.
Based on my last comment, and if you agree, wouldn't the system we are feeling now have an adverse effect on the intensification of TD 19 as it approaches? It seems to be following a similar path and the Gulf has been shaded for several days, so the surface temps should have fallen a degree or two, which, as you have told us before, makes a lot of difference. BTW, thanks for this blog. I have watched you for many years and have always matched your predictions against the "other guys", and you gained my trust by being right most of the time. I especially gained respect for you when you would "bend" the forecast from the National group and you were right. And, you would always not just tell us "what" would happen, but also tell us "why". thanks for all you did, all you do, and for always being there for all of us.
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