I do take the time to read many of the comments posted to me and I must say the vast majority understand that Meteorology, unlike Astronomy, is not an exact science. NHC has been having great difficulty with Sally after being "dead on" with Laura. Why? Sally has not been well behaved like Laura. Laura had a well defined eye that was easy to see and track. Sally has never had an eye appear, plus what I'm seeing are several swirls rotating around the center of circulation. How in the world can you track that? The computer models with Sally have not helped the forecasters. Here's the 10 AM NHC future track.
The top graphic is the 4 AM track with the bottom 3 the 10 AM update. As you can see, the track has been shifted farther to the east AWAY from us. Hurricane warnings here have been dropped, but still up from Bay St. Louis eastward to Navarre Beach. The brunt of Sally will hit EAST of the MS/AL state line which is great news for Gulf, Biloxi & the rest of Mississippi. FOX 8 was showing all morning why Sally would not head back towards Louisiana as SW upper shearing winds were approaching that would keep her away from us. In addition, I've been showing how the large blocking surface high that was centered over Michigan yesterday has shifted over to New York.
That shift will allow Sally to start moving to the north and that is what NHC's new track shows. It no longer needs to "make the turn". She'll just start moving northward later today. In addition, as Sally pulls away to the NE, her circulation should pull down some lower dew points in the 60s here making the air feel much better.
Hurricane Sally still has a large rain shield on her north and east sides. The close up radar view shows the western most band that has stayed stationary the past 6+ hours. Note, if you are west of Gulfport down to Port Sulphur, there will be little or no rainfall from this storm. There will be 10-20"+ totals from Mobile eastward to Apalachicola. As many of my friends told me this morning..."we dodged another one". Yes we have! We now need to worry about our friends to our east in Alabama & Florida, but Sally is not nearly as powerful as Hurricane Laura.
Some more good news is wave heights have been dropping and our wind direction has shifted from thee NNE to NNW. The more it veers back to the NW, the sooner the water will retreat from our lakes and bayous. That process will take time since Sally is such a slow mover.
Finally, look at this satellite view this morning. the smoke from the western fires have spread all the way to off the east coast. I think all of us will be glad to get to 2021. 2020 has not been a good year! Next update after the 4 PM advisory. Stay tuned!
31 comments:
For all those pundits and those who have way too much to say with little knowledge or facts
Go back to Sunday and start looking at Bobs blogs when he predicted that Sally would have impact the Ala/Fl line area. That was Sunday Way before anyone else saw that coming for today Tuesday
Thank you, Bob, for your dependable reports! NOLA still relies on you.
From Venice but now living in Fairhope and still look to you for Hurricane guidance. Thanks!!
I wait for the NHC comments but don't make up my mind either way until I get your blog update. I get very anxious waiting for you to post. Well worth the wait. Keep it up.
Bryan
Thank you Bob for your knowledge and love you have for your community. 😃 🍷 now it's time to sit back and enjoy the vino.
I grew up with Nash. He was a pioneer and could never be matched in that sense. However, you have become that knowledgable and insightful voice in New Orleans. Even from Tennessee, I check in to see how my friends and family will fair and you always seem to have a better insight, interpreting, not following, the computers, NHC, etc. Classy. Thanks.
Wonderful, dependable commentary by the most experienced and knowledgeable meteorologist in Louisiana. Thank you Bob Breck!!!!
I also grew up with Nash... man what a talent he had in seeing what a storm was thinking... you have a gift for that too Bob. You’re definitely my go to since Nash isn’t able anymore. Thanks for keeping us up to date with the tracks! 🥰
Thanks Bob! Your updates are much appreciated.
Bob have you ever thought about going to work for the NHC because your way more accurate than them.
Thank you, Bob. You're the best.
Thank you Bob for still caring about us being informed on the weather situations. We trust your opinions and look forward to hearing your thoughts concerning the weather. So thankful that we have dodged another bullet but praying for those affected by Sally. I am sure that the Gulfport/Ocean Springs/Biloxi area folks are thankful that they can continue to prepare for Cruising on the Coast coming up in a few weeks. Everyone needs a break.
I agree with the comment that you interpret what the NHC puts out based on your past experiences with tropical weather. Thank you Bob!
thank you so much! Very grateful for all you are doing and sharing!
I was going to mention that you said days ago it would move in closer to Mobile Bay. Meteorology is not an exact science, but you do an excellent job at interpreting the models. Thank you Bob, you are a straight shooter. No excessive drama or goolish predictions. Just wanted to let you know the people of Louisiana trust and appreciate you, and your dedication to keeping us safe and informed!😊😊
You alright in my book 💁🏾♀️ Thank you for your humor and accuracy in reporting the weather.
Saturday you were saying we in new orleans need to get nervous and we would have major impacts in see Louisiana while many of us in the public could clearly see this storm was heading to ms/al. You need to keep yourself retired and stop trying to scare people which you've done your entire career
I think you should reread his blog.
I think you should reread his blog.
Where is your expertise? Do you even know how to comprehend what you read? I mean if you're incapable go back to elementary school, they'll help teach you reading comprehension.
Dito to what Rob, the first poster, said. Trolls... bah, who needs 'em. Bob, I've been relying on your objective analyses for years and you're one of the best. Don't let the dolts dampen your good will and spirit.
Eric-- Biloxi
When I'm out of town (New Orleans) I always know I can just go to Bob's blog and find out what is going to happen during a storm -- no theatrics, no drama, just good forecasting based on science and experience. thank you! Mary
Thank you Bob for your continuing updates. You are the one I always look to for the best forcasting on storms. I do have one question that is poingant to this storm. When we have radars that can track a thunderstorm down to a street why dont we know exactly where the "center" is instead of having to rely on hurricane hunters to approximate the eye? Thanks again.
Yeah. I read his blog on saturday when he said new orleans needs to be worried. It was then I concluded that he has no idea what hes talking about. Now as far as my expertise. I've been studying hurricanes since betsy in 1965. It's funny how I can make predictions for storms only to see the so called experts agree with me hours or days later
When are we going to get a cold front BobI can’t wait.
Hmmm, pretty interesting. Someone who hides behind "unknown" and claims to know more than Bob. What a joke! Ummm what organization do you claim to be a meteorologist for sir? Lol
Been relying on you since I saw your first New Orleans weathercast when I was in middle school. Thanks Bob!
Your posts are wonderful. Was in Baton Rouge and your blog, by far, was the best for information on the storm's impact on New Orleans.
Can you explain why the pressure continues to drop yet the wind speed has decreased or remained constant?
Thanks!
Bob, you are most appreciated for your willingness, although retired, to continue to share your experience and expertise with us!
Let’s pray Mother Nature has a more well behaved rest of this season ....Let’s get 2020 the hell over with🙈
Thank you. I tell all my friends and family from the north to follow you for the best info on the storms down here. It always puts their mind at ease.
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