Track Trend Now Is Our Friend...

I've been watching David Bernard on FOX 8 and I couldn't be more proud that he is my successor.  He has been brilliant with his graphics and explanations and has made the call that the eastward track shift continues.  That would mean we will stay on the weaker side of the storm with way greater impacts from the Pearl River eastward to the Florida beaches.  Here's what David sees.

There has been an explosion of storms farther north of the last reported center, meaning the new NHC track should also shift to the right (east) of the previous forecast.  Radar still shows the majority of squall/rain is on the right (east) side, but an inner core appears to be forming.   What I'm seeing is a slow down in forward motion.  In fact, if Sally was moving towards us at 9 mph, our surface pressure should be falling.  But all along the coast, including over to Biloxi, pressure are RISING.  What the heck is going on?  Is the storm stalling already?  Does that mean there will be a change in future forward direction?   Now look at our surface winds.

The top piture was from 4 PM when we had mainly ENE winds.  The bottom pic has those winds now mainly NORTH!  That to me means Sally will go more to our east.  However, that doesn't mean we won't get any impacts.

Wave heights continue to increase with the higher waves north of the center to our east.

Despite what the satellite viewws show, radar indicates Sally remains right side loaded.  That means where that center line track ends up will be super important.  Note how the models have shifted to the east.

Intensity forecast keep Sally a Cat. 1 excluding one model that makes her a 2.  Rainfall will be the main impact for many with 15-20+" possible.  IF the new track shifts more to the east, this rainfall forecast will shift too.  Okay, it's in, the 10 PM update.

Yes the shift to the east appears real.  Also, the slower movement means parts of SE LA/MS will be under some heavy rain bands/squalls for many hours on Tuesday.  Look at a close up view of the center line shift.

The top graphic was from this morning with the track west of Lake P.  The next one is from 4 PM with the center line right over the Causeway.  The bottom two are from 10 PM which brings the center line back to Bay St. Louis where it originally was 2 days ago.  NHC says it may even move farther to the east on their next advisory.  IF that proves to be reality, Louisiana will be spared any major impacts from this storm.   However, it's too soon to say it missed us.  I don't like the almost zero movement during the past 6 hours.  NHC still claims motion is NW at 8, but based on coordinates, I don't see that.  I'm going to get a good nights sleep and we'll give it another look in the morning.  FOX 8 will begin their morning news at 4 AM and Meteorologist Shelby Latino will have the latest 4 AM updated track.  IF it's farther to the east, everyone west of the Pearl River can relax just a little bit.  Until it's on land, we must pay attention.  See you around 8 AM and Bravo to David Bernard for a terrific job tonight!  Stay tuned!