Yet Another Slow Mover...

We all remember how Hurricane Sally took her sweet time heading towards us, stalling and then moving away to the AL/FL coasts.  These are pics I captured of David Bernard trying to explain a wobbling track.

Not only did her track keep confusing computer models, but Sally's intensity fluctuations probably contributed to some residents not taking her seriously.  Well, here we go again with another disturbance in the Gulf.

The daylight satellite loop clearly showed a low level circulation that Recon aircraft confirmed so NHC has upgraded Invest 90L to TD # 22.  The bottom 2 pics indicate there has been no development of TD 22 this evening as clusters of storms are not forming around the center...yet.  NHC's future track is disturbing since in the next 5 days, what will soon to be Tropical Storm Wilfred, it will still be over the open waters of a very warm western Gulf.  Their guidance does make it a Cat. 1 Hurricane on Sunday.

The top graphic is from 6 pm while the bottom is from the 10 PM advisory.  Both expect a slow NNE movement (currently NE at 3 mph) then a sudden shift to the west as a cold front sags down into the Gulf.   It appears this front will be strong enough initially to keep soon to be Wilfred away from Louisiana.  The problem comes IF Wilfred doesn't keep moving westward into Texas or Mexico.  The Euro stalls the storm near Corpus Christi and then moves it towards Morgan City by Wednesday & Thursday of next week.   

The top graphic is the current surface map with temps in the 40s & 50s across the Upper Lakes with 60s down into the Ohio Valley.  You can see the much lower (drier air) dew points that will be staggering down towards us.  Tropical systems do not thrive with cooler and drier air.   My hope is this front (which I'm not convinced will be strong enough) keeps pushing this new Gulf disturbance into south Texas so it never impacts us.  It's way too early to buy into these early model forecasts of a very weak & disorganized Tropical Depression.  Her slow motion will annoy us for the next 5-7 days.  I'll update tomorrow once I get a better idea that the models have some clue as to where TD #22 is going.  Stay tuned!