At Dawn We Have Delta...

As you know, at 7 AM NHC upgraded TD 26 to Tropical Storm Delta centered down in the Caribbean south of Jamaica.  As their center line track had us the bullseye last night, so too this morning's track as they haven't changed it.  Why?  Because they will wait for a Recon aircraft to investigate it this afternoon.  So don't expect any radical shifts to that track until they get more data and more model runs.

Note, IF this track proves correct, all of SE LA/MS would get into the eye wall with the greater impacts to the east (right) of the center line in terms of winds, storm surge & rainfall.  The error cone stretches from the TX/LA border over to Panama City.  Obviously for us, the better scenario brings the center line farther to our east.  IF the storm goes to our west, we will see greater impacts.  If it goes farther to our east, aside from some higher tides, we would see very few impacts.  So as usual, we will watch that center line "trending" for the next several days.  Remember, Delta won't even reach the southern Gulf until Wednesday morning.

From what I'm seeing on satellite views this morning, Delta will rapidly increase into a hurricane later today as it is in an area of low wind shear and very warm waters.  However, once it gets farther into the Gulf,  I believe the environment will become more hostile and we'll see a weakening storm as it heads towards the coast unlike Sally or Laura. Why?

 Over the weekend Meteorologist Zack Fradella showed the oceanic heat content/energy potential (top graphic) on Saturday.  The middle graphic is from this morning that indicates even further cooling deep into the Gulf.  Shelby Latino also showed the surface water temps. this morning that does have the southern Gulf still warm, but not the northern Gulf.  Don't get scared if Delta becomes a Cat. 2 or 3 down over that very warm waters in the Caribbean & Gulf.   It has to weaken when it comes farther north due to the cooler water & increasing wind shear.   Also, don't get married to these early model runs.  Look what happened to Gamma.

Overnight, the center has become completely exposed as all of the storms have been blown off to the NE.   Models did NOT forecast that.  Still not sure what influence, if any, Gamma will have on Delta.

The top picture is the current surface map with another cold front way up over Montana.  The bottom graphic is valid for Wednesday morning.   As that next front approaches, the upper trough driving it south will be what forces Delta to make the turn to the North then NE.  When will that happen?  The sooner the better for us.

We currently have a cool, dry airmass over us, which is far different from what we had when Laura & Sally came ashore back in September.  The reason we don't have major hurricanes impact us in October is they usually turn BEFORE they get to us.  I will be watching to see if that happens with Delta.  If the trend shifts to the west, we'll need to pay more attention.  Regardless, even if it does come here, the impacts won't arrive until Thursday and Friday so we have several days to prepare.  Next post will be before noon.  Stay tuned!