Delta Getting Stronger, No turn Yet...

Just looking at satellite views tonight and it appears Hurricane Delta is regaining some of inner structure that was disrupted by going over the Yucatan.

This strengthening is expected as Delta pulls farther away from land.  The 10 pm NHC center line track has no major changes.  In fact, there might even be a slight nudge farther to the west.  

Recon data shows Delta's forward motion remains a fast 17 mph and the direction is still WNW (300 degrees).   To me, the longer that motion continues, the better for SE LA/MS as it would take a radical turn back to the NE for the storm to give us major impacts.  My thinking is NHC might shift the center line track closer to Lake Charles which is still very much trying to recover from Laura.  IF this WNW motion continues over night into tomorrow, don't be surprised to see that shift.  Look at the past track.

If it doesn't start making the turn to the north soon, it's far more likely to go on the left (west) side of the error cone.  Now I know many of you can't believe Lake Charles can get a direct hit twice in one season.  It's happened before back in 1995 when Hurricanes Erin & Opal made direct hits on Pensacola.  That city had gone 69 years without a direct hit & got two in the same season.  So much for averages!

The fast forward motion of Delta will restrict the heavy rainfall to mainly 5-10" with only 1-2" locally .

The surface map has a front to our north, but that front is not coming our way.

That nice cool, crisp airmass of last week is gone as tropical moisture/humidity is back.  Note our dew points are back above 70 again.   I don't see another real cold front coming until late NEXT week.  Delta will dominate the weather news for the next 2-3 days.  The major impacts for us will be the high water/storm surge caused by us being on the strong side of this storm.    Generally, you can draw a line from McComb to Hammond to Morgan City and , if you go west, the impacts will be significant from wind & water.  Head east of that line and impacts will be far less.  The worst I see here is 1-2" of rain, 20-30 mph sustained winds with gusts to 45 mph causing few power outages.  Unless there is a dramatic flip-flop, this is another storm for SW Louisiana.   

Finally, for those who asked, I had an enjoyable fishing trip with Capt. Hylton.  We caught lots of trout but only kept 1 out of 5 due to size.  Some say they were "school trout".  But as the good Captain said, these are "pre-school trout"!  Hopefully in several weeks they'll grow to be keepers?   I'll be back to find out.  Next update around 8 AM.  Stay tuned!