Delta Splitting the Goal posts...

For days now the NHC's center line track had Delta going between Lake Charles & Lafayette.  As the northern eye wall reaches the coast and moves inland during the next 2-3 hours, that track is almost dead on.  Much like Laura's track that was predicted days in advance, Delta does the same.   I know not all storms behave like they should (Sally!), but for the most part the NHC forecast days out have been spot on.  As I await the 4 PM update, here's what I'm seeing.   Delta is no Laura.

The satellite presentation comparing Laura & Delta shows there is no comparison.  Laura is on top making landfall as a Cat. 4 Hurricane while the bottom pic is Delta, which at best is a Cat. 2.

Radar views tell the same story.

On top is Laura with a well defined wide eye wall while the 2 below are Delta's ill-defined eye structure.  What made the difference?   6 weeks & a change in seasons that brought us 3 significant cold fronts that dropped the oceanic heat content over the northern Gulf way below late August.  This is not to minimize Delta's strength.  I was out in my backyard and we easily had wind gusts to 40+ and look how far away we are from Delta's center!  Later tonight, when the tail end of Delta swings through, we could see more gusts to 40-50 mph along with briefly heavy rains. There might even be a tornado watch issued for us? All that will be gone before daybreak.  OK, it's in the 4 PM advisory and it has no surprises.

NHC indicates Delta is beginning to accelerate to the NNE at 14 mph with winds now down to 105 mph at best.  The northern eye wall is moving inland with the center less than 30 miles from the coast.  It should make landfall in 2-3 hours making it the 10th landfalling storm on the U.S. coast line, a new record.  Zack Fradella had a nice graphic showing that on FOX 8 at noon.

Of course with every record is some question in the validity of the numbers.  For example, look at Tropical Storm Marco that NHC claims nipped the LA. coast.  Humm, it had no weather with it at the time, yet it goes into the books as a landfalling named storm.

The bottom pic shows the storm surge overtopping the land south of Abbeville.  That will be where the highest storm surge occurs.   All in all, another near miss for us.  So before anything else pops up in the Caribbean & southern Gulf, let's get those cold fronts coming.

Alas, the next front on Tuesday will bring some drier air sweeping away the tropical moistures/70+ dew points from Delta, but it will have very little cool air.  A stronger front should come by NEXT weekend.  Until then, we sweat some more.