When I left to go fishing, the center line NHC track was over western Lake Pontchartrain with all of SE LA/MS predicted to be in the eye wall. Hurricane Delta was south of the Cayman Islands heading towards the Yucatan Channel. So what has changed? As you all know, the NHC center line track began trending farther & farther to the west taking the main danger/impacts from us and focusing them farther to our west.
A tighter view shows how far that track shift has been.
The top graphic is from Monday night while the bottom 2 are from 10 AM. RIGHT NOW that track takes the worst side of Delta east of Lake Charles, but still close enough for them to be clipped by the eye wall winds. The worst impacts look to be from Morgan City to west of Lafayette. Does that mean we are "out of the woods"? Of course not as Delta's center has just entered the southern Gulf.
We still could have many more 'surprises" including more track shifts, but if Delta is like Laura, local impacts here were mainly high water outside the levee protection/risk reduction system. Some key observations...Delta's inner core on satellite views look to have survived the trip over the Yucatan, however, recent recon reports are not finding the winds as strong suggesting that inner core could have impacted its circulation? Also, Delta's forward speed remains very fast (WNW @ 17) and that might take it even farther to our west? Also, that fast motion should result in only moderate rain totals.
Delta will NOT be a "Harvey flooding event" with that fast motion. Note the totals from the models call for 6-10" . NHC is still predicting Delta to regain intensity becoming a Cat. 4 tomorrow and on Friday. I will not be surprised if that doesn't happen.
Saturday Meteorologist Zack Fradella showed a graphic that clearly had much cooler/less energy available since Hurricane Laura back in late August.
The top graphic is Laura's track with Delta's predicted track on the bottom. They are similar, but the Gulf is much cooler, especially north of 25 degrees latitude. I go back to what happened to Hurricane Lili back in 2002 weakening from a Cat. 4 to a 1 as it moved farther to the north. That's what I'm hoping for. The computer models don't do that. This will be another test of their accuracy or lack of. For now, the danger has shifted to our west. I'll talk more about local impact in later posts, Next update around 5 PM. Stay tuned!
25 comments:
Hope you had a great birthday. Thanks for the much appreciated insight Bob. Mike
Happy belated birthday!
Thanks Bob! You are much appreciated!
happy birthday Bob! glad you had a day off but happy to see you back!
Good to see you Bob! Hope you had a fabulous birthday! Thank you very much!
Could bogus climate change be the reasoning the NHC is keeping this a CAT 3 when it makes landfall?
2 days ago you said no major hurricane would threaten the Louisiana coast. Bob, your fat lady has left the building
Thank you, Bob! What would we do without you? All the stations LOVE fear mongering to get ratings. I'm so over it!
Wish I could attach a photo from Shelby's broadcast this morning... there was a real boo-boo
Lol. Hope you enjoyed your Birthday, Bob. Your haters were very saddened that you weren't available for them to rain on your parade.
As far as the weather goes- I'm prepared either way it goes.
Well in less than two days Bob we’ll see if you made a big mistake by asking the *at Lady to come to the stage and sing way too early.
Thank you and Happy Birthday
Thank you Bob and a very Happy Birthday to you! I have been eagerly awaiting your insight and forecast. Stay safe our friend!
Thanks Bob you are the best! Happy belated birthday!
Happy belated birthday, Bob! 🥳. So glad to see you’re back. Thanks for your update.
He already did make a big mistake .. said the fat lady sung and was a done deal. Again Bob was wrong and won’t admit it.
Sticking to your guns with regard to the storm regaining strength in the Gulf. I'm sure that the people in the Lake Charles area hope that you're correct.
This just goes to show us, you never know what God has in store for us!
~Bette~
P.S. i hope the fishing went well!
This is addressed to Luke Perry (get a real name) - so why you come here shooting off crap to Bob Breck? You have to be one of those people who want to defund the police, burn down the house kinda guy, huh? Perhaps you are acting like a typical Democrat - don't like it here, leave and don't come back! I am sick of you haters - go hate yourself!
Happy Belated Birthday Bob! Thank you for your forecast. I appreciate them. I pay more attention to yours than any others. Prayers for all from Morgan City.
Hope you caught a lot of fish and had a good birthday 🎂 Thanks for you input on this storm
I most enjoyed the other day when Bob said the storm could hit new orleans, or it could go west or it could go east of the city. Bob, once again your predictions were correct
Belated happy birthday to you. And many thanks to you for this blog. It’s the only thing that keeps me sane during hurricane season.
Belated birthday wishes to you. You certainly deserve special attention on your special day!
Thank you for always showing up when we need you. I depend upon your knowledge of these waters and times of the year. You are invaluable and a precious gem during every weather event.
Again, thank you!
From Bette >
Never say never!!!
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