Models Nudge Center Line Slightly Back To West...

Tropical Storm Zeta has been back over the southern Gulf since daybreak, but has struggled to regain its hurricane strength.   That window of opportunity to strengthen is only for another 8-12 hours.  Once north of 25 degree latitude, decreasing water temps and increasing upper wind shear should start a weakening process as Zeta approaches landfall.  The NHC's track remains focused on SE LA,MS,AL coasts.

Looking at the 4 PM center line track would indicate very little change from the 10 AM forecast.  However, when you look at the tight graphics, there has been a slight shift back to the west.

The top graphic is from 10 AM with the bottom from 4 PM.  You can see the earlier forecast had the center line passing east of Gulfport while the new one has it just to the west.  That is not a good trend for SE LA.  The farther to the west that track goes, the greater impacts we'll see.  Regardless, we will see some impacts, but the stronger side of the storm will be to the east of NOLA.

That's confirmed by the above graphics.  The tropical storm force wind field is focused on Plaquemines Parish and then to the MS/AL coasts.   The highest storm surge will be east of the Mississippi River with the greatest from Bay St. Louis eastward.

Satellite views all afternoon showed a well defined circulation , but no T-Storms around the center.  During the past 2 hours there has been a burst on the south side of the storm.   I'm still wondering what all the cold air to the NW of Zeta will have on Zeta's development?

My hope is that Zeta starts to draw in to the western side that colder and drier air preventing the storm from developing.  That won't happen until Zeta gets north of 25 degrees tomorrow morning.   So far I have not done any precautions since I'll have time in the morning on Wednesday.  I do not plan on closing my hurricane shutters.  Let's watch what that track does later tonight and tomorrow morning.  We want it to shift back to the east so we remain on the weaker side of Zeta.  As a reminder, this is not August & September and Zeta will not have the wind & surge impacts that Laura & Sally had. The greatest impacts will be from Grand Isle across Plaquemines Parish on over to the Mississippi coast from Bay St. Louis eastward.  Zeta will not linger and we'll only have 6-8 hours of heavy rainfall (2-4"+) and gusty winds.  Power outages will probably the biggest impact for SE LA.   I'll post again after the 10 PM NHC advisory.  Stay tuned!