As many of you watch the various computer models with their "spaghetti plots", one thing that stands out with Delta's future track is the lack of spread in the models. Seeing that tells the forecaster he can have great confidence in their accuracy. The 4 PM update pretty much follows earlier projections.
If this proves correct, the greatest dangers will be from Morgan City westward to Lake Charles with LCH being on the weaker side of the storm. That doesn't mean SE LA/MS will not have any impacts, but they should not be any worse than what we've seen with Laura, Marco & Sally this season. Storm surge will be 7-11 ft. by Morgan City, 4-7' for Grand Isle, 3-5' in Lake P and 2-4' along the Mississippi Coast. Those outside the levees will need to evacuate. The rest of us should be fine. Biggest concerns may be power outages depending on how strong Delta gets.
NHC still predicts (based on model guidance) Delta to become a Cat. 3 hurricane on Friday over the western Gulf weakening to a Cat. 2 at landfall. I have my feelings that could be too high, but check previous posts to see my reasoning. I hate to keep repeating things over and over. So what should we be watching for?
At the surface, we have a weak cold front that has lost its upper support and will stall out unable to offer any blocking for Delta. As the high shifts to the east, that should leave an opening for Delta to make the turn to the north. Current forward motion WNW @17, means Delta needs to slow down some in order to make the northward turn. For us, the farther to the west it goes the better. That fast forward speed will not allow any excessive rainfall as the charts above show. So what could go wrong? Hey, Delta could slow down, make a more radical turn and head back closer to us. Does that seem likely? No, but until Delta is inland, we need to pay attention. Those of you living west of Grand Isle, west of Houma & La Place, west of Hammond & Kentwood will see the greater impacts. Those of you living east of the Pearl River will have few impacts unless you live along the coast. I'll have a late night update after 10 pm, but for now I'm not nervous for NOLA. Stay tuned!
34 comments:
I just heard from Mike's weather< don't know if its allowed to say other bloggers name. That there has been a small shift to the east. Bob can you confirm this? On your next update
Yesssss! Thank you Mr. Breck!
I love Bob Breck his the best
Gee Bob. It seems like you just watch the fox8 weather report then get on here and repeat what you just watched. Thanks
Delta will be a much larger storm than any of the prior storms this season to threaten LA. so the affects we be greater for SE La. . In addition we all know how poorly the models/NHC have done this season. Just look at the Sally fiasco. Nothing is written in stone here.
That was just for the EURO model. It shifted from Lake Charles to be inline with the other models
This Hurricane is destined to shift East as it approaches the coast. It will be like Hurricane Ivan in 2004. We need to watch this carefully!
Any examples of how poorly the NHC has been this season? Explain..
I’m sure he feels pretty cheesy for saying the fat lady officially sang last week.
Bob doesn’t have a clue.. his little credibility went out the window after he bashed others and then said any major hurricane threats are over last week.
4840 ❤️❤️❤️
Cindy, maybe you should stop following him if you think he's not credible.
I'll take the word of an analog man over a digital model man any day of the week.
what is clear is that 5 day model tracks are worthless and serve no purpose other than to increase people's angst..
They should be discontinued .
Thank you Rita!
Are you a meteorologist? How do you know?
Thanks, Rita. My sentiments exactly. And Cindy, Bob said MAJOR threats would be over. A major storm is a cat 3 or higher. Most meteorologists suggest Delta will weaken as she gets into the cooler waters off the coast. So he's still on point until proven otherwise.
Thank you! You’re generous to teach along with forecasting. Learning so much here...
I agree!! BB is the best. Love the education he lends. He’s the only one that keeps things easy to understand 😊
I love it when a plan comes together!
--Scott
Cindy and anonymous, why bother to comment at all. If you have no confidence in Bob’s info, why not just scroll past it. Seems like you went looking for it just to be rude. You must be very unhappy people! Thanks for your updates Bob!
Thanks Bob!
Cindy... internet trolls like you are the reason why the internet sucks. Get off his blog if you don't respect him. Clearly he's a well established meteorologist and knows what he's talking about. Go away.
BOB'S THE MAN ! I WOULDN'T HAVE LEFT FOR KATRINA DOWN HERE IN CHALMETTE, IF IT WEREN'T FOR BOB. I WOULD HAVE DROWNED LIKE A RAT. THANK YOU BOB, SIR...
omfg
Bob. Your big mistake was having that fat lady singing.of all people, you should know better than that when it comes to hurricanes. As of now, they are still calling for a cat 3 storm to be lurking of the coast and that makes you and your fat lady look like a fool
I’ve been tracking hurricanes for over 25 years.
The track of this hurricane will shift over 100 miles to the east just like Ivan did back in 2004. Everyone thought it was coming to New Orleans and it ended up going to Mobile!
Nola be prepared. This one is coming your way!
I don’t think perfection exists in any job or profession....it really doesn’t say much about those who feel the need to spend time following someone they have no confidence in! It’s just an opportunity to display ignorance of the facts and be devisive and confrontational . Thank you Bob for sharing your experience and expertise with those of us who trust you and know you’ve been right in the past when the NHC wasnt🥴 That’s professionalism not perfection!
Wow, people are mean on here. Thank you Bob! I always trust you and you've never lead me astray. 💜
Obviously you go out of your way to obtain this blog. It just doesn’t pop up do s it? So if you think the author is an idiot why ate bothering to follow it
Go to another source. There are at least 50 of them out there and most of them love to sensationalize for theatrical purposes and ratings rather than sincere truth and human interest
Forget the storm. How was the fishing trip?
Spot on! Bob initially said Katrina would be a Florida event... nuff said
Apparently he doesn’t know...
Unknown, someone making a fair criticism isn't trolling. Troll doesn't mean someone who disagrees with you or corrects you. Grow up.
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