NHC's 1st forecast track has most of southern LA/MS in the cone of error with the center line track passing just SE of PT. Sulphur going inland east of Biloxi. What we'll want to see is a trend that shifts this track farther to the east keeping us on the weaker side of soon to be Zeta. NHC's intensity forecast does briefly make it a hurricane over the southern Gulf weakening it the farther north it goes. A deepening upper trough will turn this system to the NE, but as usual the question will be...how soon will it make the turn? I suspect TD 28 will intensify quicker than the NHC forecast as it'll be down over the warmest waters of the Caribbean.
Once into the Gulf, the waters begin to cool and the wind shear will start to increase. Areas to the right of the track could see some significant impacts from a strong tropical storm while west of the center line won't get much. Since it will be a fast mover, rain totals should be limited to 5-10".
13 comments:
We'll keep our fingers crossed
Bob sure called this one wrong. What happened to east of Florida call on Thursday?
well i guess they will be dragging out that ole VIPR again this week which will provide three or four grossly incorrect landfalls until 12-18 hours prior to such . of course then they will laud its accuracy . Someone must have paid a lot for that Edsel.
Well this sucks we made plans for beach trip Wed-Friday based on the fact someone said this storm would not be a problem for the Gulf.
umm... are the previous posters from here? I agree, there has been terrible forecasting across the board this year, but blaming Bob Breck because his opinion 7 days out is unrealistic. Locals know not to panic before 3 days out, unless it is a Cat 5. One thing for sure, 2020 is going down in the history books for many reasons, including the weather.
Just want to say thank you for all you have done in keeping us apprised of all that is going on weatherwise during this crazy 2020 hurricane season. I've surely appreciated it. This year and this hurricane season have reminded me continually of a silly old poem that I remember from when I was a kid:
Whether the weather be fine, or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold, or whether the weather be hot,
We'll weather the weather, whatever the weather,
Whether we like it or not.
I see all the negativity is always from “Anonymous “. But they are following your blog. Keep up the good work and we are thankful that you are still providing us with hurricane updates.
Well I am from here and I can say for a fact Bob has been way off his game this year and to be honest pretty much every year. Heck he just said this system would not be a problem for the Gulf because it was going east to Florida less than two days ago! He went out on a limb all but declaring Hurricanes over for us with his fat lady singing analogy and we all know how that turned out. NHC has down really well this year the only one falling behind was Bob.
I agree that this will be nothing major, but hopefully it will come this way. Anything is better than nothing!
Hurricane lover
For all the people here criticizing Bob, name one meteorologist who was correct on the track of Laura, Sally, and Delta 5 days out!
Hurricane lover
Kathy b: leave bob out of it.
no anger toward Bob, and in fact always respected and cont to respect him, just that this season he has not been on his game. Don't quit blogging Bob just go back to old school and please get rid of VIPPR
Shocker
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