After increasing in organization over night, I was pretty sure NHC would make Zeta a Hurricane before noon. Not so as the 10 AM advisory keeps max. winds at 70 mph. There has been no major changes in the track forecast as the center line track keeps us just to the west, which would be the weaker side of the storm.
A look at the past 3 advisories shows very little shift in the center line position.
The top pic is from last night, the middle being from 4 AM with the bottom from 10 AM. Note the morning 4 AM shifted to the east with the latest having a slight shift back to the west. Usually NHC doesn't have these back & forth shifts. once a trend is established, they tend to stick with it. This tells me there is no trend yet.
Wind and rainfall guidance tells me most impacts will be to the east of the center line track with lower Plaquemines & the MS/AL coasts seeing the brunt of the storm. Remember, we are no longer in August & September. This strom will not have the impacts of Laura, Sally or Delta.
Satellite views indicate a new burst in storms near the center. NHC might call this a Hurricane before the next advisory. After waddling down over the NW Caribbean for 2 days, Zeta is on the move heading NW at 10 mph.
This brings the soon to be hurricane over the tip of the Yucatan before entering the Gulf on Tuesday morning. The question we don't know is what impact will crossing the Yucatan have on Zeta? Will it disrupt its circulation much? NHC thinks no. How soon will the curve to the NE happen? Lots of questions. Few answers. Next post after 4 PM. Stay tuned!
12 comments:
Hopefully we’ll get something out of this one, otherwise this whole hurricane season will be a bust!
Hurricane lover
Grew up on you. Always feel a sense of calm when I read your updates. Real quick I noticed some of your screenshots look like they were taken with a camera phone. Windows now has a snipping tool. If you search for snipping tool on the start menuu, you can put a box around what you want to screenshot. Might make running this blog a little easier.
What about Grand Isle
Good thing the fat lady sang a month ago and this storm is going east over Florida per a certain un-named meteorologist.
Every time I think it's safe to close this browser tab, 2020 just keeps on crushing my optimism. I appreciate the work you're doing, Bob, but if we're being honest, I'm exhausted and the sooner we can all stop checking this blog the better.
Cindy, get a life already. And, may your power go out. Not long enough for your food to go bad, but long enough for you to be very uncomfortable and sweaty for a really long time. Anybody who holds Bob responsible for some arbitrary level of weather predicting accuracy, determined by them (and OBSESSES over it), is a sad and lowly individual. But yeah, may a transformer near you blow. FROM: all of us who love Bob because he's awesome
Oh Cindy, the post you are referring to was from Thursday (before there was anything to track). And Bob was just referencing the NHC's guidance (as shown in the graphic). You also sound like you have a problem with the NHC just like Karen.
I will always trust Bob . Tracking better then anyone . Bob goes with the NHC... God Bless him . I do miss him on Fox 8..I wonder why peopleven have to be so mean . It's not Bob Fault.. we're these Hurricane decided to go . GOD BLESS BOB HE DOING THE BEST HE CAN ....
Why don’t you go sit in one wherever they go so you can stop making these lame comments all the time
Anonymous why don't you go sit and have a coke and smile you miserable jerk....He's been correct for past storms Nola dodge idiot......
A slight change in direction and this storm very well could make landfall between Mobile and Pensacola.
every one gets worked up for no reason. Bob is great, but clearly had an off year with forecasting these storms as anyone can get in right 24-36 hours out. He usually does a really good job, just not this season.keep on blogging Mr.Bob .
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