Zeta Making Landfall over Yucatan...

Satellite views tonight show that Hurricane Zeta's circulation is now partly over the Yucatan.  That probably is why Recon data indicates the storm has not strengthened and should weaken some over night as it stays over land.

Zeta's forward motion has increased slightly (NW at 13) and that means the system will be back over open waters before daybreak.   The 10 pm NHC track continues this fast motion meaning there will only be 4-6 hours of wind & squalls wherever Zeta makes U.S. landfall.

The subtle changes are 1) the max winds at 7 AM Wednesday now are predicted to be 85 mph weakening to 75 mph at landfall near dark.  The center line track has nudged slightly to the east again.

The top graphic is from 10 am, the middle is the 4 PM forecast, while the bottom is the 10 pm forecast.  Note the shift is about 20 miles to the east over 12 hours from Slidell to now east of Gulfport.  IF that trend continues, the major impacts will be over lower Plaquemines and the MS/AL coasts with NOLA (including the North Shore) receiving not much in the way of wind or rainfall.

You can see how the wind graphic aims to our east, perhaps even focusing east of Mobile Bay.

IF the center line track proves correct and stays to our east, that's where the greatest storm surge will occur.  The FOX 8 Surge graphic showed 6-9' near Gulfport & Biloxi.

The wild card in all of this is the huge mass of cold air not far to our NW.  What if some of that spilled closer to us BEFORE Zeta's arrival?

Dallas is in the 30s with 40s down to San Antonio.  Wouldn't that be something is the cold air mass drives in before any models predict?  Possible?  Yes, but likely, no.    We will have all day on Tuesday and early on Wednesday to prepare for Zeta.  RIGHT NOW, my thinking is I will take down my hanging flower baskets & move some potted plants closer to my house.  I will not close my hurricane shutters since winds up here in the city should not top 50-60 mph in gusts.  IF that happens, we will have some power outages.  Zeta will not hang around and  the worst part of the storm will be Wednesday evening from 6 PM through midnight.   Sunshine will be back on Thursday and Friday and it will be much cooler and drier.  My  next post will be around 10 AM tomorrow or sooner.  Stay tuned!