Is It Coming To The Gulf? Nah!

Years ago during my early broadcast career, the National Weather Service (NWS) always has a disclaimer on their discussions from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).  It said..."For intergovernmental use only."  In other words, do not share with the general public since the information in the hands of an untrained person could be misinterpreted.   I bring that up now because nothing is kept from the public now days, including computer models.  Yesterday, several models had what was left of Eta coming into the northern Gulf.  That has changed this afternoon.

The top 2 graphics were from the morning run of the GFS that brought Eta/Theta? into the Gulf towards us before turning it into the Florida panhandle.  The 3rd view is this afternoon's GFS now keeping that system over the SE Gulf (note the large high/cold front coming from the NW) closer to the morning Euro (bottom pic) run that has it staying in the Caribbean.  These pictures are TEN DAYS from now.   Let me explain why we need not worry about whatever tries to come north.

The water temperatures north of 25 degrees have decreased to near 80 degrees, the lowest threshold for hurricane development.  (Lake Pontchartrain is now in the upper 60s)  This last cold front has lowered the water temps over the northern Gulf some 8-10 degrees from last week.  Where Eta is now, that's where the highest Oceanic Heat Content is.    Hey, this is 2020 so we must expect the unexpected.  But there is a reason why we have no record of a hurricane making landfall in LA/MS after the 29th of October (Juan 1985).  Cold air & water.  Where it's warm, different story.

Satellite views clearly show a major Hurricane (now Cat. 4) about to slam Nicaragua.   This will move slowly during the next 4-5 days no doubt causing loss of life due to flooding rains.   

But look at the cold front that has pushed all the way through south Florida and into the Yucatan.  The large high over us will slowly retreat to the east this week with a gradual warm up coming here.  Our next cold front is not coming this week, but neither is a tropical threat.

Cold air continues to build up north and I expect another strong front coming sometime during the 2nd week in November.   Instead of believing a computer model 10-14 days out, let's just enjoy what we now have and that's the coldest air so far this season.  The warm up begins tomorrow.  Stay tuned!.