Same Questions Again, Uncertainty Remains...

Yea, like you I hate when we weather folks can't make an exact forecast.  There has been no dramatic shift in model guidance, which means the potential for snow/ice is still on the table.  However, right now it looks like all we will get is a cold rain with the ice & snow staying to our north & west...but not that far north & west.   Let's begin with what we do know.  

The brief showers from this morning have lifted to our north.  That moisture will begin to over run colder air creating a wide band of freezing rain from Texas on into the Northeast.  Power outages are likely to be widespread.

The brief sunshine we're seeing this afternoon will be gone for many days as several upper disturbances ride up and over a Polar Air mass that is expanding southward.

The sharp temperature drop off will reach us during the afternoon on Thursday and we'll stay very cold for most of next week.  In addition, there will be multiple opportunities for heavy rainfall.  

 NWS is indicating 3-4"+ totals will be common over SE LA/MS.  Note the heaviest is over the eastern Gulf west of TPA.

The first rain threat arrives Thursday PM into much of Friday with temperatures way too warm for snow.  The cold deepens over the weekend with another rain surge coming on Monday into Tuesday.  Models hint we could see a late changeover to sleet/snow before it end early on Tuesday.  Note freezing temps. are likely even on the south shore Tuesday morning.  IF the cold surge is deeper, those temps may have to be revised downward.  Another Gulf system comes late Wednesday into Thursday and that might be our best chance for some frozen stuff NEXT week.

This is a very large Arctic cold outbreak and we will be way below normal for the next 7-10 days.   Even though we remain 70+, I will use Thursday as the day to bring all my tropical potted plants into my He-Shed.   I will have to decide what to do with my 6 foot crown of thorns.

If I try to move it into my shed, I might have to lop off the top 1-2 feet.   All the other plants are no trouble.  I don't want to lose them this late in the season,  Perhaps tomorrow we'll know more about how cold will it get?  Stay tuned!