I Survived Hurricane Elsa...

Elsa came ashore around 10 AM in an area of Florida's "Big Bend" coastline where few folks live as a strong Tropical Storm.  However, since it was a Hurricane west of Clearwater, I'm sure some young entrepreneur will come out with a tee shirt saying "I survived Hurricane Elsa July 7, 2021".   

However, my Tampa Bay reporter (Tom "Mr. Newsman" Boyle") tells me he didn't get much with less than 3" of rain and only 1.5' of storm surge.   That's hardly anything that qualifies as surviving, but where there's money to be made....the tee shirts will be coming.

So what are the lessons learned from tracking Elsa?  # 1, she was an extremely well behaved storm not making any erratic changes/surprises and 2) NHC's forecast track even at 5 days was exceptionally accurate.  As they often point out, the AVERAGE track error at 5 days is 200 miles..  From what I can tell, Elsa's track error might be as low as 30 miles, which is really almost unbelievable.  Bravo NHC!

So as Elsa leaves the Gulf Coast, our weather should dry out.  Well not exactly as there is another swirl over the western Gulf that has lots of clouds and storms with it.  The radar loop has the center of circulation just inland north of Corpus Christi.  This may be a reflection of a broad upper low .  NHC isn't mentioning it, but any shift back to the east would bring the circulation back out over the Gulf.  Just something to watch.

It's another ugly day here with some slow moving storms beginning to develop during daytime heating.  If you get under a downpour, you could pick up 1-2"+ in less than an hour.  The Bermuda Ridge should build back westward and decrease our clouds and shower chances for the weekend.  And that will be welcomed!  Stay tuned!