There is an upper low over the eastern Gulf creating a SW upper wind shear. The main cluster of storms is now south of Cuba away from the surface center. The bottom graphic shows the blue line past track that earlier was moving WSW, but now has shifted back to the WNW. Or has it?
This is the infrared that has the arrow showing where the surface low might be, but the main cluster of storms have pulled away to the south and east. What the heck is going on? How can we believe what the models say when reality shows us that is not what is happening? Here's the latest 10 PM NHC forecast track.
That westward shift has continued. Remember at 4 PM the center line was east of Destin. Now it's shifted 30 miles farther to the west between Pensacola & FT. Walton. To me that's significant as it brings more impacts to the Florida beaches for late Sunday into Monday and lessens the impacts to mainland Florida. But should we believe in that track when the system remains so weak and disorganized tonight? I think not. Do I think this westward trend will continue? Perhaps, but until we can see some daylight pictures that verify we still have a center, I'm not buying into the NHC solution. If you have any plans to head east for the beaches, just know Sunday into Tuesday could be rainy with wind gusts to 40-50 mph. I just don't want to see whatever is left of Fred to stall out along the northern Gulf coast. We need to pay attention.
TD # 7 has not strengthened tonight. In fact, the cluster of storms north of the islands looks more concentrated, but NHC isn't talking about it. The track of TD # 7 ( likely to become Grace) is similar to Fred's. She is not expected to become a hurricane and it's too early to know if she'll be a Gulf threat.
1 comment:
Good info
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