Sunday, August 22, 2021

Henri Was More Like a Nor'Easter...

Typically ((90%+) the strongest side of most Hurricanes is to the right of the center line track.  There have been some exceptions like Danny in 1997 that stalled for 2 days just to the east of Mobile Bay.  The heaviest rainfall totals (40+") were to the left (west) of his track.  Once he stalled, all of the rain bands kept wrapping around the center.  Brief Hurricane Henri had the same signature with the heaviest rains on the western side.




One could claim that the land based radars couldn't penetrate the heavy squalls to see the eastern side.  But look at the satellite views.



There was nothing there to see as dry air had wrapped around from the west and south.  I've drawn the upper low on the bottom graphic which shows why the rains were forced/drawn back to the west.  Some locations in New Jersey, NY & Connecticut received 6-8"+.   Jim Cantore said it best..."this was no Sandy or Bob."  Fortunately it did not rapidly intensify as the track he took would have brought much worse impacts had he been a Cat 2 instead of a Tropical Storm at landfall.  So we move on...



The Atlantic is fairly quiet with one area highlighted by NHC.  That will bother no one.

Zack Fradella on FOX 8's morning news suggested the next strom threat will come out of the Caribbean, where we have several waves this afternoon.   Computer models for days have been hinting a tropical system moving over the southern Gulf.


The top graphic is the GFS model while the bottom is the Euro.  Both have something south of Brownsville valid next Monday.  The pattern will take whatever forms westward like Grace.  So in the short term, things look quiet for us.





With the main storm track way up north, don't look for any cold fronts coming.  The upper high will keep us very hot for another day or two before shower chances increase later this week.




It's a rare day in Mid-August when no storms are over Louisiana.  Today probably is the hottest day of the year and a heat advisory is up again for tomorrow.  Stay cool , careful and stay tuned!

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