If we were back in the time of Camille (1969), we would get one or two satellite photos A DAY! No loops, no models, just the reports from the Recon flights. Today we have so much better technology. Let's begin with the NHC's official track.
So what's a given? South LA/MS will receive major impacts from Ida. The question now becomes, who can avoid the EYEWALL and stay on the weaker side (west) of Ida? Look at the bottom two graphics of that center line. NHC has been very consistent keeping it coming over Houma/Thibodaux. Will it do that? Most likely no. It will go either to the right or left and that will make a HUGE difference in impacts. I will be focusing on that center line, but right now, local officials will be following the cone of error. I'm pretty certain, some evacuations will be ordered. Let's look at the timing.
I will use Saturday to close my shutters and move my plants and lawn furniture into my He-shed. Today is my watch day waiting to see if models start a track shift. If they don't, then by Saturday evening long the coast, tropical storm force winds arrive reaching the city by early morning. The rainfall guidance has increased with the bullseye right over SE LA/MS. There is a small purple area just south of the black dot indicating up to 15-20 inches of rain may fall. Yikes!
In addition, look at the significant storm surge expected. 7-11 feet will top some low levees and boat owners need to protect their property today and tomorrow. Since NHC now forecasts Ida to become a Cat. 3 (115 mph) by landfall, I'd be planning to leave for my safe shelter away from NOLA. The sooner you decide to leave, the less traffic you'll face getting out. If you delay until Saturday, that's OK, but just know you could be in gridlock. This is going to be a bad storm Gang, and lots of folks will say afterwards...Why didn't you tell us it would be that bad? It might be, and that's why my tone is serious. Ida could be a Cat. 4 or 5 since she'll be going over the warm loop current. I'll post again around 4 PM since the next set of models won't come until after noon. The 10 AM track should be the same. See ya this PM. Stay tuned!
18 comments:
Where do you suggest we evacuate to?
So are saying if we live in NOLA we should be evacuating? Why is nothing be communicated by the city as such?
I agree - not much guidance being provided because no one really knows how strong this thing will be. By the time they realize what this has the potential to turn into, it will be to late.
Not much guidance provided by anyone because no one knows, really, how powerful this storm might be. If it does spin up , it will be to late to evacuate
There is no time to evacuate. The highways will be like parking lots. Just ride it out and experience the most amazing thing: the fury of Mother Nature!
It's so early
.. you'll probably hear something around noon
What about Slidell area? Is it suggested we leave also???
I am in an RV in Petal, MS. What impact should I expect? What about max anticipated winds?
What about Baton Rouge area? Should we think about leaving?
Thanks Bob. Appreciate how you convey info and keep us up to date and speak directly and realistically.
What about Slidell? Is it suggested we leave also?
Thanks so much Bob for all your wisdom. Are you evacuating?
Well I'm down here in Boothville venice it's gone be bad it's raining now
Oh boy
Where do you go ?
What more does Bob have to say? It’s going to be BAD period! He’s someone with authority. Listen to what he’s saying. He’s leaving. The weather is rainy(heavy) already on the MS Gulf Coast. So, you can sit and worry and be a drain on those around you or pack your bags.
Thank you for keeping us informed because we really appreciate you and trust your judgment 🙌🏾🙏🏾
Post a Comment