Life Threatening Ida Aims For Louisiana...

Good morning Gang.  Traffic cams on FOX 8 indicate many folks waited until daybreak to evacuate and that has resulted in gridlock on I-10 west heading towards Houston while not quite as bad heading east towards Florida.  Over night, NOTHING has changed in the NHC's thinking regarding the track or intensity of Ida.  She will severely impact Louisiana with the only question being...who gets into the eyewall?  That doesn't mean there will be no impacts outside the eyewall, especially to the right (east) of the track.  But the most destructive winds and surge will be near and around the eyewall.  Lots to show you, much of which you've seen already so I won't dwell on the obvious.  We begin with the track.

Yep, pretty much the same as last night.  Unlike tracking Henri, where the NHC track shifted back and forth.  Ida's track has been locked in for days.  St. Mary's, Terrebonne & Lafourche Parishes will bear the brunt of Ida's winds and surge. Cities like Morgan City/Berwick, Houma/Thibodaux, Cocodrie, Grand Isle will see life altering affects that could extend far inland towards Baton Rouge.  Do NOT evacuate to Baton Rouge!   If you are left (west) of a line from Grand Isle to Kenner to Hammond, that's where the worst winds (100mph+) will occur.  If you live to the east of that line, impact won't be zero, but they will lessen the farther east you go.  The main concerns for those east of that line will be heavy rainfall and storm surge.  More on that coming up.  Now look at the bottom two graphics.  The top is the center line track from 4 AM with the bottom from last night.  They are identical meaning NHC has HIGH CONFIDENCE. in it.

Satellie views are showing a classic circular structure of a developing storm.  As Ida passes over the warm loop current, an eye will pop later this morning.  her current winds are now up to 85 mph with forward motion a fast 16 mph to the NW.  At that forward speed, it will be difficult to alter the track by very much.

I grabbed these photos from Zack Fradella on FOX 8's morning news as he was pointing out the eyewall.  IF the track doesn't shift farther to the east, NOLA will avoid being in the eyewall of worst winds.  However, look at the heavy rain bands that come over areas to the east.

The rain forecasts still calls for 10-15" with 15-20" just to our west.  In a city with pumping capacity issues, there will be street flooding.  We really will be watching that track since a shift to the east before landfall would mean NOLA gets into the greater impacts.

The other concern is the storm surge.  4-7 feet into Lake Pontchartrain means the seawall on the North Shore will be topped and the Mandeville lakefront will flood.   IF the surge is 15 feet at Grand Isle, the island will likely be uninhabitable for days, perhaps weeks.   This is a dangerous storm and I am securing my property this morning.

Note the timing of tropical storm force winds arrive after daybreak on Sunday.  You still have time to prepare.  You still have time to evacuate.  I'll post again around 11 AM, but right now we must prepare for the worst.  Stay tuned!