Nearing Decision Time, To Stay ? Or Leave?

As I await the 4 PM NHC advisory, let's go over who must evacuate, who should evacuate and who can stay.   Let's begin who can stay.  If your house didn't flood with Katrina, then it should be safe to stay.  We learned back during 2005 with Houston & Hurricane Rita that when everyone leaves, that creates gridlock that resulting in some people dying trying to flee when they didn't need to.  Katrina several weeks earlier created a fear that made many folks leave when their homes were in safe areas.  We have a different problem here with levees & us being below sea level.  I have suggested the following...

1) You must have a 2 story home that allows you to elevate from flood waters IF a levee breaks again.  Chances of that happening are small, but not zero.  2)  You must have functional shutters that will protect windows from flying debris and 3) you have a power source-generator as electricity could be out for days or even weeks.  I'm comfortable having you shelter in place if you have all three of the above.  Why is it important to have hurricane shutters?  Look at the model intensity trends.

The top was this mornings runs while the bottom is the newest.  Look at how many model models are in the Cat. 4 range even approaching Cat. 5.  Don't be surprised to see NHC raise the landfall intensity on this next update.

Satellite views continue to show a developing system that now has winds of 80 mph.  Here's the 4 PM NHC forecast track.

To the untrained eye, it looks like there is no change in track or timing, and that is almost true.  The bottom graphic shows the timing for tropical storm force winds arriving over SE LA.  So what is different?  Look at the tight view of the NHC's center line track compared to the previous one.

The top view is from 10 AM this morning going between Morgan City & Houma.  The middle is the newest showing a slight (10-15 miles) shift to the west now going right over Morgan City.  Note the error cone does not include the Mississippi coast!  That doesn't mean you are out of danger since there is plenty of time to shift back to the east, but the current westward trend is your friend IF it continues.

The rainfall forecast is scary with 10-15" over the city but 15-20" just to the west.  The surge forecast remains unchanged, but the key will be avoiding the eyewall of strongest winds and greatest surge east of landfall.  So where should you go if evacuating?  Bruce Katz just showed a great graphic.

I'm more comfortable going east if this westward trend continues.   Remember impacts will be well east of the centerline track so you'll have to go to the AL.FL beaches to be totally safe.

The top graphic is the GFS ensemble runs with nearly all now west of NOLA. IF the center goes closer to Abbeville/Intercoastal city, we would avoid the eyewall.   I'll be watching tonight and tomorrow to see if this westward shift continues.  Regardless, this will be a close call for all of us and we are under Hurricane Warnings.  We have Saturday to prepare our yards and get our shutters closed.  As Ida gets over the Gulf, we'll be able to see the eyewall and how wide her eye gets.  I like her forward motion (15 mph) right now and hope that continues.  Models show no signs of stalling.  Have a nice dinner with family, and if you do leave later tonight or early on Saturday, stay safe.  Next post comes after 10 PM.  If you're a weather geek, tune in to my friend Joe Cioffi's youTube post tonight at 6:30 PM CDT.

Tonight's Joe & Joe Weather Show LIVE at 7:30pm will have a special guest. Former Chief @Meteorologist Bob Breck WVUE TV New Orleans will join us to lend his perspective on soon to be Hurricane Ida as it heads toward Louisiana for a landfall late Sunday. Louisiana has seen major hurricanes make landfall in the last several years and his 40 years experience in New Orleans and Bob Breck will provide insight on what could happen if Ida heads for Southeast Louisiana

 

https://youtu.be/Sr5YlbX2lAI