Let me begin by stating that Louisiana does not need to evacuate for a Tropical Storm or weaker Hurricanes except for areas outside Levee protection. Tropical Storm Nicholas will make landfall far enough to our west that even those outside levee protection will be OK. NHC in their discussion continues to mention multiple centers although on radar it appears one center is taking over as he nears the coast.
Some of his circulation is impacting the upper Texas coast and it's a matter of hours before the center makes landfall SW of Galveston (GLS).
Nicholas is a much weaker storm compared to Ida. His main impacts will not be destructive winds, but heavy rainfall. The rainfall totals have been decreased compared to yesterday, but over SE LA/MS, they have increased.
If you look at the upper photo and check the rain scale, you can see the rain forecast is 1-3" along the coastal locations, 4-6" over the South Shore and 6-10" over parts of the North Shore. My feeling is that only happens IF we see "training rain bands" set up around the weakening circulation. The track is pretty set as he reaches the coast. What we don't want, but the models predict, is a slowing down of Nicholas. So why would that happen?
As you can see on the surface map, the high has pushed off the East coast allowing for the current northward motion. But look at the satellite picture. I've circled the disturbance moving along the jet stream across the northern plains. That system doesn't appear likely to pick up Nicholas and take him away from us. Instead he's left behind in weaker steering that will have him linger over Louisiana for several days. That's why the main impacts for us will be the heavy rainfall. If spread out over many days, that would normally not be a problem. But with so many structures in various states of repair, any rain is not welcomed right now.
We do see fewer storms once we get what's left of Nicholas away from us. I do not see our next real cold front coming for the next 7-10 days. Sorry. Stay tuned!
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