Oh What A Feeling...But It Won't Last...

Going outside this morning, I couldn't help but remember the Irene Cara hit song from back in the 70s.  And that feeling will be back again later today as the sun sets and especially tomorrow morning at daybreak.  However that feeling won't last as the low level moisture returns on Sunday and next week could turn rainy.  But let's enjoy this brief Fall preview.

Oh it's still almost hot here, but look at those dew points in the 50s!  Unfortunately, you can see the clouds are not too far off our coast and it won't take much to get them back northward.

Look at the smoke on the satellite view in the top photo.  The western fires are still roaring waiting for the rainy season to begin, which is many weeks away unless you're in Oregon or Washington.  One would think based on the Climate hysteria from the news media, that this MUST be the worst fire season ever?  Hardly...

I read the current acreage burned (not included on graph) is 86% of the average year going back into the the 1920s.  Look how many more acres were burned back in the 20s & 30s.  What has changed during those past 90 years?  People invaded the West and began building their homes deeper and deeper into the forest.  But you never hear that.  Or how about more violent tornadoes because of global warming?

Nope, the trend is downward.  I realize the graph only goes to 2018, but the past couple of seasons  have continued the trend of fewer violent (EF3+) tornadoes.  Well then, certainly the past 4 seasons of major hurricanes has to be because of Climate Change?...at least that's what the politicians & media are pushing.  Before 2017, the U.S went almost 12 years (a record) of no landfalling major Hurricanes.  The past 4 years does NOT say it's climate change as hurricane frequency and landfall location are cyclical.  

Am I missing something?  Do you see a rising trend?   I do see a rising trend in the number of named storms during the past 20-30 years.  What could be causing that?  Must be global warming?

Not according to a NOAA report that indicates it's VERY LIKELY technological change is the reason.  (Better satellites, better Recon instrumentation)   Well look what Ida just did to us and NYC.  One would think that has never happened before?  Wrong.

Back in 1955, Hurricanes Connie & Diane brought "record rainfall" to the Northeast killing even more than Ida.

And what about Camille in 1969.   Sure she pounded the LA/MS Gulf coasts, but look at the stripe of 20"+ rainfall across PA. into NYC.   Clearly the data shows the 30s, 40s & 50s had way more stronger (Cat.3+) storms than now.  What was causing that?   I just want you to think Gang.  Or how about what just happened in the Western Pacific.

The Western Pacific (WestPac) is the most active tropical basin on our Planet.  However, it just went 47 days (the whole month of August!!!) without any named storm.  I thought we were supposed to see more frequent and intense storms?   Hey, climate change is clearly happening (always has) and man is contributing to an extend just because we have so many more people on Earth.  However, our current warming CYCLE will not go one forever IF the past history (geology) can be believed.  Right now, there are many climate modelers (brilliant minds) that believe that will happen and I agree we should try to mitigate man's impact.    However, we must not reduce the standard of living for that to happen.

We have to talk about the Tropics where I see several swirls out in the Atlantic.  NHC is only talking about the system coming off of Africa while ignoring the circulation in the middle of the Atlantic.  Closer to home...

NHC has raised the area over the southern Gulf to High (70%) for development.  Watching TWC point out the UPPER low in the Gulf, what I see is a low level swirl south of central America.  Personally, I think that will be the system to develop.  With the upper low over the Gulf, that is a hostile environment with lots of wind shear RIGHT NOW.

Both "reliable" models show not much development by Monday.  The top graphic is the GFS that brings a glob of moisture into SW LA. with a small swirl by Brownsville.  The bottom two are the Euro that takes the moisture more into Texas (Houston).  obviously, Louisiana doesn't want any rain right now.  With the MJO going into phase 4 (unfavorable-sinking air), I'm hoping the models are correct on little development.  Regardless, even a strong tropical wave can bring heavy rains.  Let's just hope most of the rains stay to our west next week.  Stay tuned!