Get Ready For the Coming January "Extremes"...

I mentioned many times that the weather tends to go from one extreme to the other and that's how we create the average/normal.  This past December was the warmest on record at MSY and January 2022 is about to enter the deep freeze.  Look at the reasons why.

There is currently a "modest" trough over the east with a "modest" ridge over the Rockies.  The eastern trough has ended the December warmth bringing back more typical January weather so far.   But look at the upper air forecast for the next week to 10 days.

The top graphic is from this morning followed by the forecast valid for Thursday morning, followed by valid for Sunday morning. Note how the trough sharps slightly on Thursday resulting in colder air returning to the Great Lakes & NE.  Then on Sunday there is a strong upper disturbance that triggers a surface low over southern Georgia.  This (if it proves to be reality) will produce measurable snow from north Mississippi, Alabama & Georgia to significant snows 8-12"+ across Tennessee & Kentucky eastward.  It could go up the East coast as a Nor'Easter?  But there's more as Lee Zurik says...

 Early next week, the trough is predicted to deepen (top graphic valid next Tuesday) and that will drag down the super cold (35-40 below zero) into the lower 48.  IF the upper trough is that deep, it is likely to drag down the freezing air to the Gulf Coast for early next week.  We have several days to watch this scenario and I will put out the alert so you have time to winterize your house & yard.  This weekend might be a good time to do such chores.

A cold surface high is extends from the Northeast down into the Gulf with the core of the core staying well to our north.  There is a weak upper disturbance producing clouds and some cold rain over Texas. 

I don't expect much, if any rain reaching the ground here since our dew points are so low (dry air).

If the clouds don't break until late in the day on Wednesday, highs could struggle to get out of the 40s like the 48 at San Antonio.

Clouds will decrease overnight, but once to our east, sunshine returns, along with warmer temps for Thursday & Friday into early Saturday.  Then the bottom drops out and it could be even colder than what's predicted for Monday & Tuesday.  Should be an interesting 7-10 days.  Stay tuned!