Snow/Ice Potential Decreases, Weekend Cold invasion Still On Track

There has been lots of locations from the Rockies to the Great Lakes that are enduring/enjoying many inches of the "white stuff".  It looks beautiful when it falls, but makes travel difficult/challenging at best.  Check out these scenes.

The top 3 pics are from my son (Rob) in Longmont, CO., while the bottom one is from my sister in Whiting, IN.  Don't they look pretty?  Now focus on the cars/trucks.  I remember growing up having to leave early because you 1) hoped the car started, 2) had to get it warmed up and 3) had to spend 10-15 minutes trying the clear off the winds just to be able to see.  Those are childhood memories that I no longer want to repeat!  So what about getting the white stuff here?   Alas, Today's models are less bullish.

I've drawn on the satellite view the upper air flow.  The second graphic is the upper flow from this morning with the second valid for Thursday morning.  Note the arrow pointing out the upper disturbance rounding the base of the trough.  The bottom view is valid for Friday morning.  For us to get any snow/ice, that upper disturbance needs to deepen slightly and be farther to the south nearer us.  Right now that doesn't look to be the case.  I grabbed these graphics off of Bruce Katz's 4 pm program.

The top picture has what looks like a squall line ahead of the front and NWS indicates there is some potential for strong/severe storms as we'll be in the warm air sector.  The second view from 1 PM on Friday has us behind the front with some lingering showers, but the model is NOT indicating any frozen precip.  The bottom graphic has a tighter view showing where the better chances for snow and ice remain well north of the Lake.   Could that change?  Maybe, if more cold air arrives before the rain moves out.  But RIGHT NOW, it appears just a cold rain here.

The current surface map has a sprawling Arctic high diving out of Canada with really cold air behind the front.  As the second upper disturbance, that I pointed out above, ejects out tomorrow & Friday, more heavy snow/ice & rain will spread eastward.

Look at the temperature contrasts either side of the front.  that is why we'll have a slight potential (bottom graphic) for severe weather Thursday PM.

We had a good, soaking rain (.50-1.00") today, but even heavier amounts are likely tomorrow PM into midday on Friday.   We experienced a gloomy day locally, but just to our west sunshine warmed highs 75-80.

If we can see more sunshine here tomorrow, highs will soar to near 80.

Don't get use to the warmth as it will not hang around.  In fact, this weekend looks very chilly with full Winter weather gear required if you're going outside.  I'm bringing my plants inside BEFORE the front arrives Thursday Afternoon.  The colder than average/normal temps. will linger for the next 2-3 weeks.  Stay tuned!