Wednesday's Severe Threat VERY Real, No Over-Hype...

Since we're only a week removed from our last tornado touchdowns, any mention of storms gets everyone's anxiety levels way up.  Normally, I don't like to over-hype severe weather.  However, when the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) issues a LEVEL 4 !!! risk outlook, we must pay attention since that usually means it's gonna happen somewhere in the area outlined.  The top graphic is for this afternoon and evening followed by tomorrow's outlook.

Let me explain the set up that makes tomorrow's severe weather LIKELY.   

We have a surface low over NE Colorado with a traling cold front down to the south.  Near Las Vegas is a potent upper disturbance moving towards the Rockies.  In addition, there is a fast moving sub-tropical jet stream (orange arrows) moving over us.  With strong low level southerly winds (yellow arrows) couples with the fast moving SW upper low, it creates conditions that produce strong wind shear with height.   Where the main jet stream (blue arrows) split with the sub-tropical stream (orange), that is the area for greatest lift.   Tomorrow that split is projected to be right over us.

In addition, we are under a Wind Advisory with computer models indicating 50 MPH gusts to be common after the noon hour.  Here's the timing which looks disturbingly similar to last weeks storms.

Late March into early May often sees some of the strongest tornado outbreaks as Spring warmth battles retreating winter cold.

The worst storms usually are in the warm air sector where we find temps well into the 80s.

Throw in increasing dew points (humidity) and you have all the ingredients to produce violent storms.

This should be a fast moving system so rainfall amounts should stay in the 1-2" range with only brief street flooding expected.  So what should you do?  Tonight and through midday on Wednesday, make sure your FOX 8 weather app is updated to receive the latest NWS warnings.   Have your action/safety plan ready in case warnings are issued.   Hopefully, we don't see a repeat of last week, but we must be prepared just in case.   Alert your family/relatives making sure they know about the storms coming for late tomorrow.  Stay safe & stay tuned!