Summer is Not Over & Neither Is The Hurricane Season...

Gosh, didn't it feel great this morning and even during this afternoon's heat, it just doesn't feel bad.  The "cool" frontal boundary has stalled over the northern Gulf, but the drier air/lower dew points have sagged over us & offshore.  It'll be another great feel day tomorrow before the muggies return on Friday.

Note the extensive smoke plume to our north.  As the surface high shifts to the east, southern winds will bring back humidity & the chances for rain.

Those of you who are sick of the summer heat will be disappointed in the outlook for next week.  The 90s are coming back as a heat dome is predicted to redevelop over the Plains.

the top satellite view shows an upper low lifting over the Rockies triggering much needed rainfall for some.  However, as that lifts to the NE, a heat done will re-establish over the same areas that have suffered all summer.  The bottom graphic is valid for next Monday with the center of the heat dome over Texas & Oklahoma.  That should mean more 90s for us.  Ugh!

I do not see another cold front coming here for the next 7-10 days.  And now on to the Tropics.

There are a bunch of swirls out in the Atlantic, but NHC has focused on the one farther to the west naming it Tropical Depression 7.  The NHC official track strengthens it into a Tropical Storm (Fiona) taking it westward over Puerto Rico before turning it to the north towards the Bahamas.   If the system stays weak, it will likely go farther to the west into the Gulf as the Canadian model shows.

The top graphic was yesterday's Canadian run valid for NEXT Wednesday.  Th bottom is today's run valid for NEXT Thursday.  Do I buy that solution?  NO!  Why? Because that's the only model that brings the system into the Gulf.  What do the other main models show?

This is the GFS which takes it (Fiona?) east of Florida and NOT into the Gulf.  In fact the GFS takes it northward towards Long Island similar to Super Storm Sandy's track.  Way too soon to believe that happening.  How about the European model?

The Euro does the same and NHC is following that trend.  I've got the center line track on so we can follow the trend of the track for the next few days.  

What we don't want to see is the westward track as the waters are far hotter to the south.  The bottom graphic is the oceanic heat content that has the warmest south of Cuba with a break off of the Loop Current into the central Gulf.  So far this season, the pattern is for a recurve to the north.  Let's watch to see if that trend continues.  Stay tuned!