Next Front Could Trigger Severe Weather Outbreak...

A strong Upper disturbance over the Pacific Northwest will dive down towards Colorado tomorrow before streaking out towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday.   This will not be a slow mover so I don't see a serious flood risk.   However, there could be an outbreak of severe storms ahead of the front, especially just to our north.  Here's SPC's severe risk with a level 4 bullseye centered in Mississippi.

As you can see, there is the potential for 1-3" rainfall in spots, but the fast movement should limit the heavy rain potential.  here's the timing of the frontal movement.

The air behind this front will require bringing out the sweaters & jackets for Wednesday PM into Friday morning, but the warm up begins for this weekend.

We saw some patchy dense fog early this morning that lingered over the colder waters of the Lake & bayous. I expect increasing winds to begin early Tuesday and that could lift the low clouds/fog up off the ground.

Watching local weathercasters and they rarely show these features on satellite views.  In fact, they rarely use satellite views focusing/abusing on the water vapor loop.   I only used the water vapor to point out upper features since it is NOT at the surface, but in the mid to upper levels(10-20,000') of the atmosphere.   

We're quiet for now and should be OK through midday Tuesday.  Note the 60+ dew points over south Texas on the bottom graphic.  That is the Gulf low level moisture that will be surging northward providing the fuel for the possible severe outbreak Tuesday night into Wednesday AM.  Finally...

I mentioned in previous posts that as we reach December, I start to pay attention to the temperatures up in Alaska & northern Canada..  It's not 40-50 below yet, but you can see spots in Alaska that are 30-35 below.  Fortunately, there are no signs of a deep East Coast upper trough for the next 10-14 days that would bring the chill down south to us.  December will begin mild to warm, but that might mean the 2nd half of the month leading up to Christmas could turn cold?   Could mean a White Christmas for most of the nation?  Stay tuned!