Christmas Week Will Turn Colder & White...

Today's model runs continue to show an Arctic Blast coming down for NEXT weekend just in time for Christmas.  It's already December cold over the northern states, but that's nothing compared to what's coming.  IF the East coast upper trough verifies, then we're likely to see a hard freeze down to the Gulf Coast for several mornings beginning as soon as next Friday. the super cold (50 below +) air over Siberia will cross over the North Pole and surge down over Canada into the lower 48.

So it's pretty safe to say the cold is coming.  What I'll be watching is to see if an area of low pressure forms down over the Gulf AFTER we get into the frigid air.  Today's GFS hints the storm (a Nor'Easter) will form off the Carolinas.

The top graphic is the upper flow at 18,000' for today followed by the forecast for Wednesday, then next Friday & the bottom being Christmas Eve.  Notice the sharpness to the trough that extends down to us.   For us to have any chance for snow, that upper low (arrow) will have to be farther to the west.  Right now, it just looks like a freeze is coming for next weekend.

In the short term, today's sunshine will leave as clouds spread over us for Saturday.  Radar is indicating lots of showers with those clouds, but most of that activity is not reaching the ground since the surface air is so dry.  However, the clouds will keep temps tomorrow from getting much above 50.  

Before the network newscasts going bonkers over the coming cold, remember Gang, it's mid December & it's SUPPOSED to be cold.  The 28 in Chicago is slightly below their long tern average/normal.

We are NOT expecting any severe weather tomorrow since low level moisture is limited.  Last week's dew points were 70+ compared to today's 35.  Brownsville is nearing 60 and some locations along the coast tomorrow could approach that.

Obviously, we'll be focusing on the Arctic cold coming for late next week.  You might want to prepare your home & garden so you're ready for a freeze.  Finally, I mentioned in yesterday's post not to jump on Climate Change for the short term increase in local Hurricanes & Tornadoes.  In case you miss this article in today's Advocate.

Bill Bunting, the Chief of the Storm Prediction Center's operational branch (forecasting) was quoted as saying what I said.  Don't blame everyday weather on global warming. I-phones, social media etc. makes it seem storms are more frequent.   Next weekend, we may be praying for warmer air!  Stay tuned!